Bhubaneswar: A low-pressure system, which persisted over the Strait of Malacca and adjoining South Andaman Sea at 5.30 pm on Sunday, is expected to intensify into a depression by November 24, before strengthening further into a cyclonic storm around November 26.
“The well-marked low-pressure area is very likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea on November 24. Continuing to move further west-northwestwards, it is very likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm over southeast Bay of Bengal during the subsequent 48 hours,” the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its evening bulletin.
However, the cyclone’s probable track or highest likely intensity are yet not available.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said bulletins will be issued every six hours once the system becomes a depression and every three hours after it turns into a cyclone.
Name Of Impending Cyclone
If the system develops into a storm, it will be called Senyar — meaning “lion” — a name suggested by the United Arab Emirates. It is part of the pre-approved list of tropical cyclone names used in the region.
The practice of naming storms (tropical cyclones) began years ago to help in the quick identification and tracking of storms since names are presumed to be far easier to remember than numbers and technical terms. For North Indian Ocean, including Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea, a new list of names was adopted by World Meteorological Organization (WMO)/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones, which includes 13 member countries (Bangladesh, India, Iran, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Thailand, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen), in April 2020.
Each country has provided a list of 13 names, which are being used sequentially. These names are supposed to be easy to pronounce, neutral to politics, religions, cultures and gender. Also, not ‘very rude and cruel’ in nature.
Senyar will be the second post-monsoon cyclone in the Bay of Bengal this year, following Cyclone Montha, which made landfall close to Narsapuram in Andhra Pradesh on October 28.
Anticipatory Warnings
The weather agen
cy has issued a special message warning of heavy rain in southern states, including Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Andhra Pradesh. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands are also expected to receive heavy to very heavy rainfall, with squally winds and rough sea conditions from November 23 onwards.
“Heavy rainfall likely over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during November 23-28; Tamil Nadu during November 23-2; Kerala & Mahe during November 23-26; Lakshadweep, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam during November 23-24; Rayalaseema on November 23. Very heavy rainfall may occur over Andaman & Nicobar Islands during November 24-26; Tamil Nadu, Kerala & Mahe on November 23-24.”
The Nicobar Islands will also see wind speeds of 35–45 km/hr, with gusts up to 55 km/hr till November 24, and rise to about 65 km/hr on November 25.
Fishermen have been advised against entering the Andaman Sea and southwest Bay of Bengal till November 25 because of strong winds and rough seas.
Impact On Odisha
While the IMD is yet to predict the path, wind speed of the possible cyclone, meteorologists are of the view that this fresh system is unlikely to have any significant impact on Odisha. The systems formed during this period usually move towards Tamil Nadu or south Andhra Pradesh. Odisha experiences rainfall only if the system moves northwards. However, there is no data on cyclones hitting Odisha during this period, they said.
Revenue and Disaster Management Minister Suresh Pujari said that the system is currently around 1,000 km from the mainland. “There is nothing to worry as the administration is fully prepared to mitigate the impact if the intensifying system shifts towards Odisha’s coastline,” he added.
Other Predictions
According to senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls, a cyclonic storm is likely to form in the Bay of Bengal later this week. “Watching a low forming near SriLanka & another low in the southern Andaman Sea. Varied solutions & tracks so details unclear but eventual impacts on eastern India appear likely,” he posted on X.
President of private forecaster Skymet G P Sharma suggested the system may bypass Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, potentially moving towards West Bengal or Bangladesh, but exact paths are difficult to predict at this stage.
Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal primarily develop during the post-monsoon months of October and November due to warm sea surface temperatures, low vertical wind shear, and conducive atmospheric instability.