3rd COVID Wave: Senior Health Official Debunks IMSc’s Analysis On Rising R-Value In Odisha

Bhubaneswar: The estimated R-value or effective reproduction number revealed by the Chennai-based Institute of Mathematical Sciences (IMSc) does not reflect the ground situation of COVID-19 spread, Director of Medical Education and Training (DMET) in Odisha, Dr CBK Mohanty, said on Monday.

“There are many mathematical models tracking the pandemic and predicting the possibility of a third wave, but the analysis has not always been accurate. The daily cases are declining and Odisha is currently in the plateau stage,” he said.

The analysis by researchers at IMSc revealed that the R-value has gone from 0.78 on June 30 to 0.88 in the first week of July despite a decline in the nationwide tally of new cases. The rise in the transmissibility rate was attributed to massive crowds at multiple tourist and religious places.

The R-value is a way of rating coronavirus or any transmissible disease’s ability to spread. It is the number of people that one infected person will pass on a virus to, on an average. If the R-value is higher than one, then the number of cases keeps increasing.

Mohanty said that India currently has an R-value of 0.88 and it is more than 1 only in some northeast states and Kerala. “The report had mentioned the R-value of Sundargarh, but there has been a decline in the transmission rate in this district since then,” he said.

According to IMSc, the R-value of Sundargarh stood at 0.82 between June 30 and July 4 and rose to 1.13 between July 5 and July 15.

Professor Sitabhra Sinha of the institute had raised concern over rising daily infections in western Odisha districts that has the highest number of patients undergoing treatment for COVID-19.

Similarly, the R-value in the worst-hit Khurda is inching towards 1, while it is 0.81 in Puri and Balasore and 0.78 in Cuttack.

The R-value in Odisha was 0.74 between June 8 and 21, 0.94 between June 22 and July 5 and 0.86 between July 6 and July 15.

The DMET, however, said that the rate of transmission cannot be alone calculated by mathematical models and also depends on the response of the body as it is in the realm of biological science. “It is not necessary that the two will match every time,” he said.

“When cases are declining progressively in the state, how can I accept this analysis,?” he asked.

On Sunday, ICMR’s former advisor Dr Tribhuban Mahapatra said the R-value above 1 in Sundargarh indicates signs of the third wave in the state.