Bhubaneswar: Two more low-pressure areas are likely to form over the Bay of Bengal next week, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) informed in its extended range outlook.
One among these two systems may intensify into a depression and cross the Odisha coast.
According to the MeT office, the cyclonic circulation over North Andaman Sea and adjoining Myanmar coast is likely to move slowly north-northwestwards along Myanmar coast and reach eastcentral & adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal off Myanmar coast by September 21. Thereafter, it is likely to move northwestwards across north Bay of Bengal and under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over north Bay of Bengal around September 23.
It further stated that another low-pressure area is likely to form over northeast Bay of Bengal around September 26. “There is a moderate probability of its further intensification into a depression over northwest Bay of Bengal around September 27. It is likely to move west-northwestwards, cross Odisha coast on the same day and move across central India during the subsequent 2 days,” it said
Another remnant cyclonic circulation from South China Sea is also likely to emerge into North Bay of Bengal around September 30, it added.
Notably, Odisha has experienced heavy rain under the influence of 12 low-pressure areas during the ongoing southwest monsoon season.
Model guidance
ECMWF Model is indicating development of a cyclonic circulation/low pressure area over westcentral and adjoining northwest BoB off north Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coasts around September 21 with nearly northwestward movement towards Gangetic West Bengal. The model is also indicating a fresh low-pressure area over northeast BoB around September 26 with west-northwestwards movement across north BoB and central India up to Saurashtra coasts.
ECMWF AI Model (ECAIFS) is indicating an upper air cyclonic circulation/low-pressure area over North Andaman Sea off Myanmar coast around September 20. It is likely to move west-northwestwards across North BoB and reach over northwest BoB around September 23 and likely to move west-northwestwards across eastcentral/central India up to south Gujarat coasts till September 28. A fresh low-pressure area is indicated over northwest BoB on October 1. It is indicated to persist over the same region till October 3 with no significant intensification.
NCEP GFS model is indicating a low-pressure area over eastcentral BoB around September 24 with intensification up to depression over north BoB around September 25. Model is indicating further intensification of system into a deep depression/cyclonic storm and crossing over north Andhra Pradesh coast near Visakhapatnam around evening of September 26. The model is also indicating a fresh low-pressure area over north Andaman Sea off Myanmar coast (Irrawaddy Delta) on September 29, which is likely to move westnorthwestwards and intensify into a depression around October 1 over North BoB.
BharatFS Model is indicating an upper air cyclonic circulation emerging over north Andaman Sea on September 20. It is likely to move west-northwestwards across North BoB and reach northwest BoB and under its influence a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region around September 23. The model is also indicating a fresh low-pressure area over northeast BoB on September 26. It is likely to intensify into a depression over northwest BoB and cross north Odisha coast around September 27.
IMD GFS is also indicating similar features like BharatFS model for the emergence of an upper air cyclonic circulation over North Andaman Sea around September 20. It is likely to move west-northwestwards across North BoB during the next 2 days and under its influence a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region around September 23. The model is also indicating emergence of another cyclonic circulation over north Andaman Sea off Myanmar coast around September 25. It is likely to become a low-pressure area over eastcentral BoB on September 26 with west-northwestwards movement and further intensification into a deep depression/cyclonic storm on September 27. Thereafter, it is likely to move west- northwestwards across central India till September 28 as a depression.
NCUM is indicating a cyclonic circulation over northwest BoB on September 20 with intensification into low-pressure area on September 23 over the same region.