Bhubaneswar: The weather system over the Bay of Bengal intensified into a well-marked low-pressure area over the east-central region as of Saturday morning.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the system will persist over the area before strengthening into a depression later in the day, further building into a deep depression by October 25.
Moving west-northwestwards, the system is projected to escalate into a cyclonic storm over the west-central Bay of Bengal by the morning of October 26. Upon reaching the cyclone threshold, it will be named Arnab, a moniker suggested by Bangladesh.
According to IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, the storm will continue its trajectory west-northwestwards and intensify further while approaching the north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha coast by the morning of October 28.
Environmental Conditions and Numerical Models
Meteorological analyses from global weather monitoring agencies point to highly favourable oceanic and atmospheric parameters for rapid development. Environmental conditions currently present low vertical wind shear (5 to 10 knots), warm sea surface temperatures ranging from 29°C to 30°C, and moderate upper-level outflow.
Both the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) and private forecaster Skymet noted high potential for rapid cyclogenesis over open waters. Numerical weather prediction models suggest the storm could intensify into a severe cyclonic storm or stronger as it approaches land. However, experts note that an anti-cyclonic ridge to the north could influence the final landfall location, with current speculation focusing on the stretch between Visakhapatnam and Machilipatnam in Kakinada region.
IMD officials emphasised that a clearer picture regarding the exact trajectory and peak intensity will emerge over the next 48 hours.
Projected Impact: Strong Winds and Heavy Rain
Squally weather and gale reaching speeds of 70–80 kmph, gusting up to 90 kmph, are expected along the east coast beginning October 26, with wind speeds gradually increasing until October 28 morning.
Light to moderate rainfall is forecast to begin along the coastal belt of north Andhra Pradesh, Odisha, and West Bengal on October 26. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is anticipated from October 27 onwards, with isolated places in north Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha potentially receiving extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 30 cm on October 27 and October 28.
State Preparedness and Disaster Mitigation
In response to the advisories, state authorities along the eastern coast have initiated high-level emergency protocols. The Odisha government has issued alerts across vulnerable districts. Revenue and Disaster Management Minister Suresh Pujari announced that the administration is operating under a “zero casualty” mandate, deploying the National Disaster Response Force (NDRF), Odisha Disaster Rapid Action Force (ODRAF), and Fire Services personnel to strategic locations.
Also Read: October Fury Returns: Red Alert In Odisha, Stirring Memories Of Historic Super Cyclone, Phailin
Key measures announced by state officials include:
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Evacuations: District collectors have been directed to prepare multipurpose cyclone shelters and map out evacuation plans for residents in low-lying and flood-prone areas.
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Healthcare Support: Special arrangements are being made to identify pregnant women nearing delivery in vulnerable zones and relocate them in advance to community health centers and district hospitals equipped with uninterrupted power backups. Medical relief centres and mobile teams have been placed on standby.
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Fishermen Advisories: Fishermen currently out in the deep sea have been ordered to return to the coast immediately, with complete bans issued against venturing into central and adjoining coastal waters through October 29. Large trawler and vessel owners have also been instructed to secure their fleets.
Authorities have appealed to the public to avoid spreading or relying on unverified rumours, advising residents to monitor official updates through mass media and official communication channels as the storm develops.