New Delhi: India is likely to get below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicted on Monday.
As per IMd’s projection, India will receive 80 cm of rainfall during the season, compared to the long period average (LPA) of 87 cm.
“Quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 92 per cent of LPA with a model error of /- 5 per cent,” IMD’s Director General of Meteorology Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said a a press conference.
One of the reasons for below-normal rainfall could be th
e emergence of El Niño conditions. Climate models indicate that El Niño conditions are likely to emerge around the month of June, Mohapatra said.
Weak La Niña conditions are currently transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific.
There is a silver lining as climate models show that during the second half of the monsoon season, positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions may develop.
“Positive IOD leads to more rainfall. So, we expect that this will counter the impact of El Niño during the second half of the monsoon season,” Mohapatra said.
He pointed out that the Northern Hemisphere snow covered area during the last three months was slightly below normal compared to last year. This volume of snow over the Northern Hemisphere generally has an inverse relationship with the subsequent southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall in India.
The IMD will give an updated forecast for the upcoming southwest monsoon season in the last week of May.