New Delhi: All the exit polls on Tuesday, soon after voting for the Bihar Assembly elections ended, predicted a comfortable victory for the Nitish Kumar-helmed NDA alliance.
But many were waiting for the results of Wednesday’s exit poll of Axis My India, whose Chairman and MD happens to be popular psephologist Pradeep Gupta.
As it turns out, even Axis My India is projecting that Nitish, who was written off by many, looks poised to return as Bihar chief minister for a stunning tenth term.
However, it could be a close race with Gupta’s exit poll giving NDA a narrow edge against the RJD-Congress Mahagathbandhan (MGB) alliance.
According to Axis My India, NDA could get between 121 and 141 seats, while Mahagathbandhan may secure 98-118 seats.
While NDA is projected to receive 43% of the polled votes, MGB could get 41%.
Election debutants Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), the brainchild of former pollster Prashant Kishor, won’t get more than 2 seats, and may even draw a blank, as per the latest exit poll.
Despite being set for a disappointing debut, Jan Suraaj could play a crucial role in the final results of Bihar.
Kishor’s party has been projected to receive 2 to 6% of the votes. However, Gupta pointed out that if JSP manage around 6%, it would help MGB’s tally go up towards the higher spectrum of 118 and pull NDA down to around 120. In that case, a hung-Assembly scenario in the 243-member Bihar Assembly can’t be ruled out.
On the other hand, if JSP’s vote share is close to 2%, NDA could win around 160 seats, observed Gupta.
The results will be declared on November 14, the counting day.