Congress’ Predicament: Ride Piggyback On INDIA Partners Or Revive On Its Own

Regional parties would cede no space to the Congress in states even if it means gifting advantage to the BIP. They won’t let it ride piggyback on them and regain lost ground. It is the same ground they have snatched from the party to establish themselves. The Grand Old Party simply doesn’t get the message. Or if it does, it is too helpless to do anything about it. The parties would be willing to make some compromise in the general elections but would budge little in case of assembly elections.

It means the opposition INDIA alliance would be of no relevance in most states, particularly the ones in which regional parties have a dominant presence. The parties would prefer to fight on their own strength rather than getting into an arrangement with the Congress which brings little value to the table but also comes with a baggage of past wrongs. Moreover, they may not have the same antipathy towards the BJP as the Congress.

In the assembly elections of 2022 in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress had a vote share of 2.3 percent. In 2020 elections in Bihar, it had a vote share of 9.48 percent, in the just-concluded elections in Delhi, it had a vote share of around 6.5 percent, in West Bengal in 2021 it was 2.9 percent. In Odisha, it commanded a vote share of around 13.3 percent. In Maharashtra it registered a vote share of 12.4 percent. These numbers reveal the reality of the party in many of the states.

The Aam Aadmi Party didn’t enter into an alliance with the Congress in Delhi neither does Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress want one in West Bengal. In Bihar the Rashtriya Janata Dal would like to be the one calling the shots, same with the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh. Their stand is not difficult to comprehend. All of them have been founded on the original support base of the Congress. They cannot hand it back. Also, those with a national ambition would like to expand base in new territories. It makes sense for the AAP, a party keen to have presence in other states, not to ally with the Congress.

The Congress was rather indifferent to its own dismal performance in Delhi; it derived some satisfaction from the defeat of the AAP. It reflects a sense of helplessness. It is yet to acknowledge the fact that for most INDIA bloc allies it is a greater enemy than the BJP. Distrust of it runs high. If someone has observed closely, the BJP is much better at making deals with parties, even those not ideologically aligned with it – Nitish Kumar of the Janata Dal (United) and Chandrababu Naidu of the Telugu Desam Party are examples.

It should be obvious to the party by now that it has to revive on its own. It cannot rely on alliances to grow again. Instead of focussing on winning elections, it has to concentrate on rebuilding its organisation. Riding piggyback on regional parties just won’t work.

(By arrangement with Perspective Bytes)