COVID 4th Wave Unlikely In India: IIT Professor

Kanpur: In what will be extremely reassuring words for every Indian’s ears, an IIT professor has said that a fourth wave of COVID-19 is unlikely in the country.

In an interaction with India Today, IIT Kanpur professor Manindra Agrawal said his prediction was based on the fact that no new mutants have come to the notice of health officials.

Agrawal, whose mathematical model has been used as reference point for understanding the behaviour of coronavirus in the country over the last two years, said the improbability of a fourth wave is also because natural immunity against the virus among people is above 90 per cent.

Asked about the rising number of cases in Delhi-NCR, he reasoned it’s due to restrictions being lifted in the region, adding that the mathematical model suggests it won’t last long.

“Recently, schools have opened and people have stopped using masks so there is an increased exposure to the variant. But this will not have a severe impact on people’s health as the immunity to the current variant is strong,” he said.

Delhi reported 517 COVID cases on Sunday, with the positivity rate at 4.21 per cent, but there was no death.

He also felt that restrictions imposed by Uttar Pradesh government — face mask mandate reinstated in several districts and section 144 imposed in Ghaziabad — will help in bringing down COVID cases.

Agrawal said vaccines being used in the country’s inoculation programme are fully efficient against the new variant.

“No vaccine can stop the infection but there will be no serious illnesses from it. There is no need for other vaccines as studies have shown good results against the variant with these vaccines,” he said.