COVID Third Wave: Trajectory Has Changed, Peak Likely On Jan 23, Says IIT Scientist

Kanpur: It may not be long before the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic peaks in India.

According to IIT-Kanpur scientist Manindra Agrawal, the trajectory has changed and the downward curve may start after January 23 without cases reaching the 4-lakh daily mark, as it did during the deadly second wave last year.

Agrawal’s analysis is based on the fact that Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata – three of the worst-hit cities during the Omicron-driven spike — have already reached their peak over the last few days, PTI reported.

Agrawal, one of the researchers associated with Sutra COVID model that has been used to track and predict infection numbers in the country since the beginning of the pandemic, said coronavirus cases will peak in Maharashtra, Karnataka, UP, Gujarat, and Haryana this week, while states like Andhra Pradesh, Assam, and Tamil Nadu may peak next week.

Also Read: COVID 3rd Wave In Odisha Likely To Peak By Jan-End With 30,000-40,000 Daily Cases

“Trajectory with data up to 11th indicates the peak on 23rd January with nearly 7.2 lakh cases per day. The actual trajectory is already deviating significantly, and the actual peak is unlikely to cross 4 lakh cases/day,” tweeted Agrawal, who had earlier predicted that the third wave will peak by the end of January.

“Across the country, the trajectories are changing significantly. I speculated earlier that it is due to ICMR guidelines for a changed testing strategy. However, at many places, these guidelines are not yet implemented and still, the trajectory has changed!” he said.

Explaining the likely reason for the change in Omicron-driven case trajectory in India, Agrawal said: “There are two groups in the population, one with less immunity against Omicron and the other with more. The mutant first spread in the first group causing a sharp rise. Now the first group is exhausted and so the spread is slower.”