Cyclone Asani: Marginal Or Very Severe Category Storm, Check What Different Weather Models Say

Bhubaneswar: While rain triggered by Nor’wester pounded Bhubaneswar and several other places in Odisha on Thursday, all eyes are now on the possible cyclone brewing in the Bay of Bengal.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is yet to make any forecast on the possibility of the system, which is likely to develop into a low pressure in the South Adaman Sea and its neighbourhood by Friday, intensifying into a cyclone. It had, however, mentioned that chances of storm formation are high in May and environmental conditions are favouring it.

According to North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis, the IMD GFS is indicating that the system might intensity into a very severe category storm.

“Most of the deterministic models including IMD GFS, NCEP GFS, ECMWF, NCUM (R), NCUM (G), ECMWF, IMD WRF, IMD MME and probabilistic models including GEFS, NEPS, ECMWF ensemble are indicating likely cyclogenesis (formation of depression) over the Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal around May 8. The MME CFS (V2) is indicating >80% probability of cyclogenesis over the Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal,” it said.

Except for IMD, most of the models are indicating the system is likely to intensify up to a marginal cyclone. The models are, however, unanimous about the northeastwards re-curvature of the system, it added.

“Cyclonic circulation around Andaman sea will repeat tomorrow and move towards the north-west. As per our estimate, wind speed now on would hover between 40-50 kmph, it will further increase from May 8 onwards and can go up to 75 kmph,” Umashankar Das, a senior scientist at IMD, today told news agency ANI.

The further path of the system can only be ascertained after it intensifies into a low pressure and a clear picture can emerge thereafter, he added.

Also Read: ‘Asani’ Developing Over Bay Of Bengal! Who Named The Cyclone & What Does It Mean?

Meanwhile, senior meteorologist of AccuWeather Jason Nicholls said that the low pressure is likely forms near the Andaman Islands in the next day or two. “It can strengthen into a cyclone over the BOB early next week. Track unclear but areas from Andhra Pradesh to Bangladesh should watch,” he added.

According to Centre for Environment and Climate (CEC), SOA University, director Sarat Sahu, the current conditions like the sea surface temperature are favourable for the formation of a cyclonic storm. He, however, said that more clarity regarding the path and intensity will emerge on May 7.

“Growing genesis potential is pointing towards tropical cyclone formation over the Bay of Bengal.  Elevated probabilities of cyclogenesis suggest further up-gradation of the category of storm as it will travel over warm waters of the ocean under favourable environmental conditions. The longer the stay, the more are the chances for this weather system to sustain incremental growth over the next few days,” Skymet weather agency said.

While there has been an appreciable increase in the frequency of tropical storms from April to May, these systems are known for deviating the specified norms, but the defiance is extreme during the month of May, it added.

Notably, Odisha has witnessed three summer cyclones- Fani, Amphan and Yaas – in the last 3 years.