Cyclone Mocha: Large Variation In Genesis, Landfall Forecasts; Know What IMD Has To Say

Bhubaneswar: The cyclonic circulation over Southeast Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify into a low pressure area over the same region by Monday ( May 8) morning, the IMD reiterated in its midday bulletin on Sunday.

The system is likely to concentrate into a depression around May 9 and intensify into a cyclonic storm thereafter while moving nearly northwards towards Central Bay of Bengal and adjoining North Andaman Sea. The details of its path and intensification will be provided after the formation of the low pressure area, it added.

According to the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by IMD, there is large variation among various forecast models on the genesis with IMD GFS indicating depression around May 8, National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) on May 9 and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on May 11.

These models are indicating intensification of this system into a severe cyclonic storm. “The variation continues among these models with landfall point varying between 16.0/94.8 (GFS) and 17.0/94.9 (ECMWF) during May 13-14,” it said.

NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM), on the other hand, is indicating no significant intensification of the system and west-northwestwards movement towards Tamil Nadu coast and emergence into southeast Arabian Sea.

IMD MME is also indicating depression around May 8 over south Andaman Sea with nearly northwards movement till May 13 towards eastcentral Bay of Bengal, it added.

According to senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls, “A tropical low is expected to form in the vicinity of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands over the next couple of days, then can become a depression by midweek. System can become cyclonic storm Mocha before impacting Myanmar, NE India or Bangladesh toward next weekend.”

Upon its intensification into a cyclonic storm, the system will be called Cyclone Mocha, a name suggested by Yemen. It originates from the Yemeni city Mocha (or Mokha) located on the Red Sea coast, which is known to have introduced coffee to the world over 500 years ago. Mocha is a chocolate-flavoured warm beverage that is a variant of coffee.

The MeT office has only issued advisory for fishermen, warning them against venturing into the Bay of Bengal, which is likely to experience squally weather with gusty winds up to the speed of 60 kmph due to the cyclonic disturbance on May 7. The wind speed might gradually increase to 80 kmph by May 11, resulting in rough sea conditions.

“Squally weather with wind speed reaching 40- 50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely to prevail over southeast Bay of Bengal, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and adjoining Andaman Sea on May 7-8 and wind speed increase gradually becoming 60-70 kmph gusting to 80 kmph over southeast and adjoining central Bay of Bengal, Andaman & Nicobar Islands and Andaman Sea on May 10-11. Sea condition is likely to be rough over southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining south Andaman Sea from May 7 onwards and very rough from May 9 onwards. It is likely to be very rough to high over southeast and adjoining central Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea from May 10 onwards.”

There is heavy rainfall warning for Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Kerala and Mahe from May 8.

Meanwhile, the IMD has forecast a gradual rise in the day temperature by 2 to 4 degree Celsius at many places in Odisha during the next 3 days. Yellow warning for thunderstorm with lightning has been issued for some places in the southern districts of the state till 8.30 am on May 9. Light to moderate rain may also continue for next 5 days amid dry weather conditions at some places.