Cyclonic Circulation Likely Over Bay Next Week With Chances Of Cyclogenesis

Bhubaneswar: A fresh cyclonic circulation is likely to form over south Andaman Sea/southeast Bay of Bengal around November 14 with chances of cyclogenesis, according to the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis.

“There is likelihood of development of a fresh cyclonic circulation over south Andaman Sea/ southeast Bay of Bengal around November 14. It is likely to move west northwestwards and intensify gradually into a depression during the later part of the week,” it said.

Hence, cyclogenesis is expected over southeast/eastcentral Andaman Sea in the later part of the week with low probability, it added.

The IMD GFS, GEFS, NCEP GFS, ECMWF, ECMWF ensemble and NCUM are also indicating development of fresh cyclonic circulation over south Andaman Sea around November 14, a low-pressure area over Andaman Sea and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal around November 15 and depression over southeast and adjoining eastcentral Bay of Bengal around November 18.

Overall, models are indicating simultaneous development of cyclonic disturbances over the bay of Bengal and the Andaman Seas from November 15. However, the GFS group has forecast intensification of this system into a cyclonic storm around November 19.

“The IMD extended range model is indicating 30-40 % probability of cyclogenesis over eastcentral and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal and 10-20 % probability of cyclogenesis over eastcentral Andaman Sea during week 1 (November 11 to 17), 20- 30% probability of cyclogenesis over south Andaman Sea and south Bay of Bengal during week 2 ((November 18 to 24),” the outlook added.

Notably, the IMD has forecast dry weather for Odisha during the next five days with a gradual fall in temperature by 3 to 4 degree Celsius.