Delhi Election: Can Arvind Kejriwal Overcome Shrinking Aura, Voter Fatigue?

Arvind Kejriwal has lost the aura; it cannot be said with certainty about his ability to win Delhi though. As the capital-state prepares for assembly elections, the question is will he, as the leader of the Aam Aadmi Party and its mascot, turn the polls into a referendum on himself and manage a thumping victory once again. In the last two assembly elections he commanded a brute majority in the 70-member House. The big two – the BJP and the Congress – didn’t even look as respectable challengers.

He is no longer the angry outsider threatening to change the rules of conventional politics or the one impatient to make democracy what it should be: responsive and accountable to people. More than 12 years into active politics, he is an insider, playing by its unwritten rulebook. It’s normal. Power politics has its own dynamics. It reshapes everyone. But he cannot bank on the victim card – someone allegedly constantly targetted for being different from other politicians – this time. This despite him having more reason to do so.

Four top leaders of his party, including himself, Manish Sisodia, Satyendra Jain and Sanjay Singh were in jail on charges of corruption for varying lengths. However, the investigative agencies, supposedly acting at the behest of the central government, have produced nothing substantive against them. Kejriwal, his deputy Sisodia and Sanjay Singh, all accused in connection with the liquor scam, are on bail. It’s obvious that the AAP would drum up the ‘unjust’ treatment to its leaders in the elections.

“They have been investigating the case for 15 months but have not been able to unearth even a single rupee of illegal money. So much time and so many resources have been expended but they haven’t been able to prove anything. This is just a political vendetta. The BJP knows it is losing,” senior leader Raghav Chaddha told the press sometime ago.

It’s possible they are victims of a conspiracy but at the level of public perception some damage is done. For someone who launched his political career as an anti-corruption crusader, the likely impact of recurring corruption charges on Kejriwal and his government cannot be ignored. But it’s difficult to read how deep it has gone in the public psyche. Looking through the prism of the severely biased mainstream media, you would never get a clear picture. Only the election results would bring clarity.

As election talking points go, the Aam Aadmi Party would require much more than harping on victimisation. Does it have other issues to take to people? In the earlier elections, when Kejriwal’s party spoke about education and health, it was a refreshing respite from the tired old political slogan of parties. Both were unexciting topics from the campaign point of view, yet the party managed to take it to homes. Will it be the same this time?

Well, some sheen has wore off from the novelty factor. The much publicised Mohalla clinics have come under scrutiny for alleged irregularities including ‘ghost’ patients, unqualified doctors and fake lab tests. The government-run hospitals have been under the radar of enforcement agencies for low quality drugs. The claims of the party on expanding educational facilities have come under question too. These include inadequate number of schools and shortage of teaching staff.

However, the AAP can claim these to be falsehood being spread by the main challenger BJP, which is in power at the centre and has control over investigating agencies, in partnership with the loyal media. The chances of a victory would rest heavily on how successfully Kejriwal manages to take a positive narrative into the masses. It also has to be wary of the fatigue factor among voters. They might be seeking a change after experiencing AAP for two terms.

Kejriwal has a tough task at hand. A big part of it sensing the mood at the grassroots level, where lies his core support base.

(By arrangement with Perspective Bytes)