Bhubaneswar: While a cyclonic storm brewing over the Bay of Bengal is likely to spare Odisha, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast 2-3 degrees drop in the night temperature during the next 2 days.
“The night temperature is likely to fall by 2-3°C over the districts of Odisha during the next 2 days and thereafter rise by 2-3°C during subsequent next 5 days,” the IMD said in its midday bulletin.
Amid the prevailing dry weather conditions, the weather agency has also warned of dense fog at one or two places in the districts of Koraput and Sundargarh till Wednesday morning.
The Impending Storm
Meanwhile, the well marked low pressure area over Malaysia and adjoining Strait of Malacca has moved westnorthwestwards and intensified into a depression over Strait of Malacca, about 70 km west of George Town (Malaysia), 290 km east of Kuta Makmur (Indonesia), 740 km east-southeast of Nancowry (Nicobar Islands) and 870 km east-southeast of Car Nicobar (Nicobar Islands).
It is very likely to move slowly west-northwestwards and intensify further during next 48 hours, the IMD said.
The other low-pressure area over Comorin and adjoining areas of southwest Bay of Bengal & Sri Lanka has moved over southwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of South Sri Lanka and Equatorial Indian Ocean. “It is very likely to move north-northwestwards and become well marked during the next 24 hours and intensify further into a depression during the subsequent 24 hours,” it added.
What Do Weather Models Indicate?
The GFS group of models (IMD
GFS & NCEP GFS) are indicating the depression over Strait of Malacca to move nearly northwestwards with further intensification during the next 24 hours. Thereafter, NCEP GFS is indicating north-northeastwards movement with gradual weakening whereas IMD GFS is indicating northwestwards with gradual intensification up to November 28.
The ECMWF model is indicating depression over Malacca Strait with initial northwestwards movement till November 26. It is likely to further move east-northeastwards across Malaysia and gradually weaken thereafter during the subsequent 72 hours.
Accoridng to private forecaster Skymet, the weather system in the Bay of Bengal is on track to become Cyclone Senyar. Warm waters and supportive atmospheric conditions would favour its further development as it moves west-northwestward into the southeast Bay of Bengal.
Citing the models, it has offered two scenarios about the track of the system. “A Tamil Nadu or Andhra Pradesh coast-hugging path around November 29–30, or a northward curve that keeps the system offshore and gradually weakens it over the Bay,” it added.
Meanwhile, US Joint Typhoon Warning Center has issued a cyclone formation alert. “95B in Strait of Malacca to intensify into a cyclonic storm in 24-hrs,” it informed.
ECMWF models indicate low-pressure area over Comorin and adjoining south Sri Lanka will intensify into a depression during 24 hours over the same region. It will then skirt the Sri Lanka coast and intensify further during the subsequent 72 hours. Thereafter, the model is indicating northwestward towards north Tamil Nadu coast with gradual weakening.
NCEP GFS indicates that the system would move east-northeastwards across Sri Lanka during the next 72 hours with gradual intensification and emerge into southwest Bay of Bengal during the subsequent 24 hours. Thereafter, it will move northwards with gradual intensification.
The NCUM model is indicating the low-pressure area over southwest Bay of Bengal off south Sri Lanka coast will initially move eastward movement during the next 24 hours and then northwestward movement with gradual intensification during the subsequent 48 hours.
While most models are indicating low pressure area/ well-marked low pressure area over Comorin area and adjoining Sri Lanka coast on November 25 and its further intensification up to depression during the subsequent 24 hours, there is a large variability in the track and further intensification thereafter.