Paris/Dubai: European partners express alarm that a novice US delegation is hastening a flashy framework agreement with Iran, one that might solidify underlying issues instead of fixing them, according to diplomats experienced in Tehran dealings.
Their concerns centre on Washington’s drive for a quick foreign policy triumph for President Donald Trump, potentially yielding a shallow deal on Iran’s nuclear activities and sanctions easing — followed by prolonged, intricate technical negotiations.
“The concern isn’t that there won’t be an agreement,” said a senior European diplomat, one of eight who spoke to Reuters who have previously worked on the nuclear file or continue to do so. “It’s that there will be a bad initial agreement that creates endless downstream problems.”
Addressing Reuters queries on negotiation tactics, personnel, goals, and pitfalls of speed, White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly dismissed the doubts. “President Trump has a proven track record of achieving good deals on behalf of the United States and the American people, and he will only accept one that puts America first.”
Echoes of 2015: Trump’s JCPOA Exit
Negotiators from France, the UK, and Germany — engaged with Iran since 2003 — report being pushed aside.
Between 2013 and 2015, they partnered with the US to forge the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), limiting Iran’s nuclear pursuits for sanctions reprieve. Trump exited the pact — Barack Obama’s landmark policy — in 2018 during his first presidency, deeming it “horribly one-sided.”
Post-40 days of airstrikes, US-Iran discussions kicked off in Islamabad this month, revisiting nuclear limits for economic concessions. Preparations for renewed in-person sessions surfaced Sunday in Pakistan.
Experts highlight profound distrust and divergent styles as threats to a shaky outline lacking political durability. “It took us 12 years and immense technical work,” said Federica Mogherini, who coordinated the talks from 2013 to 2015. “Does anyone seriously think this can be done in 21 hours?”
Nuclear Pact: Details Prove Elusive
Diplomats suggest a bare-bones deal is possible, pairing nuclear and economic elements—though nuclear hurdles dominate.
“The Americans think you agree on three or four points in a five-page document and that’s it, but on the nuclear file, every clause opens the door to a dozen more disputes,” a second European diplomat said.
Focus falls on Iran’s ~440 kilograms (970 pounds) of 60%-enriched uranium, viable for multiple bombs with added processing.
Options include IAEA-monitored “down blending” in Iran or hybrids shipping portions out.
Turkey and France surface as hosts; US shipment poses political barriers for Iran, Russia for Washington, according to two diplomats.
Recovery from airstrike damage, quantity checks, and safe transit demand drawn-out talks. Iran proposes time-bound foreign storage.
“Whatever happens now is only a starting point,” said a Western diplomat previously involved in nuclear talks. “That’s why the 2015 JCPOA ran to 160 pages.”
Stockpile fights mask bigger clashes on enrichment rights. Trump seeks none; Iran claims civilian needs, rejecting bomb aims. A fix might pause it temporarily, then allow minimal levels under tight rules.
Europeans insist on IAEA primacy with robust inspections and access. “A negotiation with Iran is meticulous and subtle: every word matters,” said Gerard Araud, France’s chief negotiator from 2006 to 2009. “That’s not something you rush.”
Sanctions, Security and Ally Concerns
Iran prioritizes near-term frozen funds abroad; full relief trails, needing Europe’s nod for sustained trade value, diplomats note.
Critics fault US bifurcation of principles from execution, misgauging Iran’s dynamics. “These talks aren’t a real-estate deal settled with a handshake,” said a senior regional diplomat briefed by Tehran, referencing Trump aides Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. “They involve sequencing, sanctions relief and reciprocal nuclear steps.”
Amid hardened positions from the recent war, Tehran’s top priority is a firm US non-aggression commitment, coming after strikes by American and Israeli forces that disrupted earlier diplomatic overtures.
This apprehension unites US allies: Gulf states insist on curbing Iran’s ballistic missiles and proxy militias across the region, while Israel demands the strictest possible restraints to neutralize lingering threats.
In sharp contrast, Iranian leaders regard their diminished but intact missile stockpile as a critical deterrent, safeguarding against further aggression now that the conflict has eroded much of their conventional forces.
Diplomats consider demands for the complete dismantling of Iran’s missile program unrealistic, particularly without robust, overarching security guarantees that address Tehran’s vulnerabilities exposed by the recent war and prior strikes.
Washington’s non-negotiables, per a top Trump aide: cease uranium enrichment, raze primary enrichment plants, retrieve highly enriched uranium, and back a regional de-escalation accord with allies.
Europe Sidelined Yet Pivotal
Europeans admit some self-imposed distance, via last year’s UN sanctions revival push and Revolutionary Guards terror designation.
Yet Tehran values their conflict non-participation, they assert.
“There’s simply not enough expertise in this US.team,” said one European official, noting that roughly 200 diplomats, financial and nuclear experts were involved in the 2015 talks. “We’ve worked on this file for two decades.”
The White House affirmed National Security Council, State Department, and Defense officials’ presence and ongoing roles in Islamabad.