Fragmented Opposition, Tainted Image: Here’s Why Exit Polls Predict Setback For AAP In Delhi Elections

New Delhi: After contesting the 2024 Lok Sabha elections together against the BJP, the AAP and Congress decided to go their separate ways in Delhi elections just months later doing the same in Haryana. If exit polls—majority of which has shown a BJP comeback in Delhi—are true then the opposition differences may have lead to a split in anti-BJP votes.

However, Congress is not the AAP’s only challenger in this fragmented opposition. Several other opposition parties have potentially dented AAP’s prospects. The Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party had contested all 70 seats. The Left had also fielded candidates in half a dozen seats.

Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) could have dented AAP’s vote share in Muslim-dominated constituencies. Chandrashekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) may have also caused damage. The opposition votes divided across multiple players. This has made the electoral landscape in Delhi even more unpredictable.

What could be the other factors for BJP’s possible win?

An analysis of the exit poll predictions also show that the Congress has likely dented the AAP’s support base among Muslims and Dalits. An analysis also predicts BJP making inroads among jhuggi clusters and unauthorised colonies. These were the two pillars that helped AAP win in 2015 and 2020.

Besides, the BJP’s attacks on AAP over the alleged liquor policy scam, leading to imprisonment of several of its top leaders, and the “Sheesh Mahal” controversy may have made an impact on voters, if pollsters are to be true. Kejriwal’s image of an anti-corruption crusader was dented by claims that Kejriwal and other top leaders of AAP were involved in the excise policy scam. Then came the huge expenditure on the CM’s residence that the opposition dubbed ‘Sheeshmahal’. Pictures of imported curtains, costly kitchen appliances, lavish accessories and fittings countered the claims that Kejriwal made of maintaining a humble lifestyle. The BJP may also be benefitted by last week’s Budget, which cut income tax on the salaried middle class.

Here’s what exit polls said

After a hiatus of 27 years, the BJP is likely to make a comeback in Delhi, according to a majority of exit polls. The party was reduced to just single digits in the last two Delhi Assembly elections. While pollsters have predicted a big setback for Arvind Kejriwal’s AAP, they also claimed that Congress may win 1–2 seats.

An average of five exit polls shows that the BJP is likely to secure 39 seats, comfortably above the halfway mark of 36. The AAP is likely to be reduced to 30 seats, the pollsters predicted. However, past elections have shown that exit polls often get it wrong.

Among the pollsters, only Mind Brink and WeePreside have suggested a return of the AAP in Delhi. While Mind Brink has given the AAP anything between 44–49 seats, WeePreside has predicted 46–52 seats. Matrize has predicted a close contest in the national capital. It has given 35–40 seats to the BJP and 32–37 seats to the AAP. A party needs to win atleast 36 seats to form the government in Delhi, which has 70 Assembly seats.

PMarq has predicted anywhere between 39–49 seats for the BJP, it has given AAP 21–31 seats. Times Now JVC has forecast 39–45 seats for the BJP and 22–31 seats for the AAP. The People’s Pulse has given the most seats to the BJP (51-60). It has forecast 10–19 seats for the AAP.

One more exit poll left, will release today

While most of the pollsters released their predictions for Delhi polls on Wednesday, psephologist Pradeep Gupta’s Axis My India will release its exit poll at 6.30 pm on Thursday (today).

“We will release our Delhi State Election Exit Poll numbers tomorrow, 6th February 2025, 6.30 PM onwards after detailed field work, number crunching, detailed analysis, and post-poll study,” Gupta said.

AAP rejects exit polls, BJP hails

BJP’s Delhi unit chief Virendra Sachdeva said “AAP-da (disaster) is leaving”. But AAP leader Reena Gupta stressed that the party would “register a historic victory”, and Arvind Kejriwal would become the Chief Minister for a fourth time.

“You look at any exit poll historically, AAP is always given a smaller number of seats, whether its 2013, 2015 or 2020. But whatever is shown, AAP gets a lot greater number of seats in reality. AAP will register a historic victory,” Gupta told the PTI.