Bhubaneswar: A fresh weather disturbance developing over the Bay of Bengal has put meteorological agencies on high alert, with experts monitoring the possibility of a cyclone along India’s eastern coastline late this month.
The India Meteorological Department, in its morning bulletin on Wednesday, said that the cyclonic circulation over North Andaman Sea moved west-northwestwards and lay over the North Andaman Sea off Andaman Islands at 5.30 am. It is very likely to move west-northwestwards and under its influence a low-pressure area is likely to form over Southeast and adjoining Eastcentral Bay of Bengal around October 23. Then it is likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify further.
Originally emerging from the Gulf of Thailand and traveling across Thailand and Myanmar, the circulation is expected to consolidate over the central-southeast Bay of Bengal by Friday.
While the IMD confirms that the system will gain strength as it travels northwest, it has held back on defining the trajectory or final peak intensity. Manorama Mohanty, Director of the Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre, emphasised that the system’s intensity and path can only be confirmed once the low-pressure forms.
Model Predictions and Trajectory Forecasts
Global weather models overwhelmingly agree that a low-pressure area will form, though projections on its eventual severity vary:
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) suggests it could intensify into a depression around October 28 and move towards the Odisha coast. Some international models project the system could approach the coast around October 27, with possible landfall the following day, though exact path, location and timing remain uncertain.
A good chance for a cyclone to develop in the Bay of Bengal toward the #Andaman Islands late this week or weekend. Watching for impacts from #AndhraPradesh to #Odisha & #WestBengal around the middle of next week. https://t.co/hTBl4hsFRG
— Jason Nicholls 💙 (@jnmet) October 21, 2026
Chennai-based weather tracker Parthan highlighted that October atmospheric patterns during El Niño cycles historically nudge systems westward, reinforcing predictions that this disturbance will maintain a westward to northwestward course from its origin.
Climatology and Expert Assessment
October is typically favourable for cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal due to warm sea surface temperatures and low vertical wind shear. Meteorologist Sarat Chandra Sahu said many models point to intensification of the system over the Bay of Bengal, though its direction and the extent of strengthening remain unclear at this stage. “At present, it is too early to make a definite assessment,” he said.
Sahu added that favourable conditions could allow the system to intensify from a deep depression into a cyclonic storm, but its eventual intensity is still uncertain.
Authorities and weather experts are closely monitoring the evolving system for any potential threat to the Odisha and Andhra Pradesh coasts.