Bhubaneswar: The cyclonic circulation, which persists over Gulf of Thailand and adjoining Thailand & Myanmar, is likely to emerge into North Andaman Sea on Wednesday.
Thereafter it is likely to move west-northwestwards and under its influence a low-pressure area is likely to form over Southeast and adjoining Eastcentral Bay of Bengal around October 23. Then it is likely to move north-westwards and intensify further, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The system is expected to further intensify the Northeast monsoon rainfall activity over Tamil Nadu. Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall is expected over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands from October 20-26, with isolated heavy rainfall likely between October 20-24. Additionally, the islands may experience gusty winds ranging from 30–40 kmph with gusts up to 50 kmph from October 20-22, intensifying to 40–50 kmph with gusts reaching 60 kmph alongside isolated thunderstorms and lightning from October 23-26. Meanwhile, Odisha is likely to see isolated to scattered rainfall, along with gusty winds of 30–40 km/h (gusting up to 50 km/h), on October 20, followed by a return of light, isolated to scattered rain on October 26, the MeT office said.
Several districts in the state, including Kataka, Jagatsinghpur, Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Gajapati, Ganjam, Nayagada, Puri and Khordha, are expected to experience increased rainfall.
Some weather models have indicated formation of a low-pressure area over the Andaman region by October 24 or 25. The system is then expected to intensify into a depression by October 27 while moving into the central Bay of Bengal, with a strong likelihood of strengething into a cyclone within two days. Meteorologists predict it may make landfall between north coastal Andhra Pradesh and south Odisha by the end of the month. As agencies closely track the system, more definitive insights into its track and intensity is likely to emerge over the next two days.