Bhubaneswar: A low-pressure area is likely to form over southeast Bay of Bengal around October 24, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis issued on Thursday evening.
The system is likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify further thereafter. “There is a moderate probability of its intensification into a depression around October 26,” it added.
The weather models are indicating westnorthwestwards movement of the system towards Andhra Pradesh-Tamil Nadu coasts. “The anomaly field is indicating an anomalous low over South Odisha during week 3, indicating northnortheastwards recurvature of the system.”
The ECMWF model forecasts a low-pressure area forming on October 24, whereas the IMD GFS and NCEP models predict potential development on October 22 and 21, respectively. “IMD ERF model forecast indicates low to moderate (30 to 40%) probability of cyclogenesis over west-central Bay of Bengal. ECMWF Sub-seasonal forecast is indicating low probability of cyclogenesis (20 to 30%) over southwest and adjoining westcentral Bay of Bengal during October 20-27. ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast is also indicating low probability of cyclogenesis (20 to 30%) over the westcentral Bay of Bengal region during October 27-November 3.”
More details are likely to emerge once the low pressure forms over the Bay of Bengal. “We are closely monitoring the anticipated weather system and more details like its further intensity and path will be known in the coming days,” Bhubaneswar Meteorological Centre director Manorama Mohanty told the media.
Senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls has also predicted formation of a low-pressure area over Bay of Bengal next week. “The NE monsoon has commenced in southern India. A low will form near Lakshadweep this weekend, then can strengthen as it tracks toward Somalia & #ocotra next week. Another low likely forms in the S BOB later next week,” he posted on X.
While around 12 to 14 low pressure areas form over the Bay of Bengal on an average during the extended monsoon season, this year saw formation of 16 weather systems, triggering widespread rains over Odisha.
Historically, the Bay of Bengal has produced some of the most intense cyclones, including the 1999 Super Cyclone and very severe cyclonic storm Phailin in 2013 that devastated Odisha and extremely severe cyclone Hudhud in 2014, and severe cyclone Dana in 2024 in the month of October.