Bhubaneswar: Will they, won’t they? The Hamletian Dilemma gripping the ruling BJD and the opposition BJP in Odisha seems to be coming to an end as both parties inch closer towards an electoral alliance after a 15-year hiatus.
Though existence of a tacit understanding between the BJD and the BJP – who were allies from 1998 to 2009 – for the last few years is no secret, the possibility of both re-entering into a formal pact for the ensuing Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha elections in April is bound to change the political dynamics in the state.
Why are the two parties planning a tie-up? What would be the seat-sharing arrangement? Who would benefit? And who would lose out? As political circles engage in discussions about these and other related issues, we take a look at why the former allies want to re-enter into a marriage of convenience and what could be the ramifications:
Why The BJP Needs The BJD?
- Target 400 plus: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ‘abki baar, 400 paar’ slogan with an eye to possibly take some big decisions if he becomes the nation’s premier for the third consecutive term requires strengthening of the BJP-led NDA. Compared to 2019’s tally of 353, NDA would need at least 47 to touch 400 in 2024. And to accomplish his mission the NDA would need BJD to be back in its fold. In the process, the BJD-BJP could together aim to win 21 Lok Sabha seats in the eastern state.
- Double Engine Sarkar: The BJP has been making claims of forming ‘double engine’ government by coming to power in Odisha to ‘double the speed’ of development. But somewhere the BJP national leadership apparently lacks confidence that their state-unit leaders can deliver it to them. Hence, the easiest and surest route to power in the state could be to tie-up with Naveen Patnaik’s BJD, which has been in office in the state for 24 years on the trot.
- Five Trillion Economy Dream: Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s goal to make the Indian economy touch the five trillion US dollar mark couldn’t possibly be accomplished without tapping into Odisha’s natural resources and long coastline. To make the state the ‘gateway of development’ and realise the Purvodaya dream, Modi & Co could perhaps be hoping to have a smooth ride when it comes to implementing their plans over the next five years if they return to power at the Centre and the state.
What The BJP Would Risk Losing?
- Opportunity To Strengthen Party In Odisha: By opting for a pre-poll pact with the BJD, the BJP could well be losing out on the opportunity to enhance its support base in the state. The saffron party has a good opportunity to increase its tally in the Lok Sabha and Vidhan Sabha in 2019 from 8 and 22 respectively and also its vote share from 38 per cent and 32.5 per cent respectively.
- Credibility Crisis: The BJP is bound to lose its credibility in Odisha though it might return to power in the state riding piggyback on the BJD. The fact that the saffron party has not found it below its dignity to hold the hands of the regional party, which in 2009 unceremoniously dumped it ahead of twin polls, might not go down well with the party cadres, supporters as well as the general public.
- Vacate Opposition Space To Congress On A Platter: By joining hands with the Conch party, the BJP has offered the Opposition space in Odisha to its arch-rival Congress on a platter. The Congress, which has over the past two decades gradually declined in the state and won only 9 MLA and one MP seat in 2019, has got an opportunity to resurrect its fortunes without actually doing much to deserve it.
Why The BJD Needs The BJP?
- Smooth Sail To Sixth Term: This obviously could be on top of the BJD leadership’s agenda as an alliance is expected to deliver to it a record sixth term in office. That too without a hiccup. Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik has, of late, not betrayed his earlier energy levels and an electoral pact could save him the effort of travelling to every nook and cranny of the state in this summer heat to beat anti-incumbency and retain power.
- Central Ministerial Berths: An alliance with BJP is also likely to ensure berths for the BJD in the Union ministry as poll pundits predict the NDA would retain power at the Centre. This might fulfil the aspirations of top BJD leaders wishing to become central ministers and gain a national profile while effectively putting brakes on certain Odisha BJP leaders aspiring for similar positions.
- Keep Central Agencies At Bay: Being part of NDA would also help the BJD avoid coming under the scanner of central investigative agencies like CBI and ED. Since quite a few BJD leaders have been accused of complicity in the mining and chit fund scams, the possibility of central agencies cracking the whip on them like it has happened with leaders of certain non-NDA outfits like AAP, TMC and JMM is distinct. The alliance, however, could serve as a shield.
- Opposition Decimated: With BJP playing second fiddle in Odisha, the BJD can breathe easy as the main Opposition party is taken care of and the Congress is not in a strong position to take advantage of the changing political scenario.
- Dissension Quelled: More importantly, the ruling party in Odisha can throttle the dissidents who could otherwise have aligned with the BJP. At least four MLAs, who won the 2019 elections on BJD ticket, had in recent weeks joined BJP and more were said to be planning to follow suit. The rising number of MLA and MP aspirants in BJD was also causing headache to the party bosses. A pact with BJP could, to a good extent, help keep the dissidents at bay.
- Smoother Transition: The regional party is currently witnessing a transition phase with old veterans slowly making way for the younger generation. At 78, Naveen too is not getting any younger. In such a scenario, BJP on its side could mean the BJD can switch over to GenNext without much difficulty.
What The BJD Would Risk Losing?
- Weaken Its Pan-Odisha Organisation: Like a rose, the alliance too shall have its thorns. The BJD, which has a solid organisational base in all 147 Assembly constituencies of the state, could now face the prospect of getting restricted to the constituencies from where it would contest, thereby harming its all-Odisha support base. This might lead to some party leaders and workers moving away to greener pastures.
- Lose Its Credibility As A Regional Party: The BJD, which grew as a party by hammering central neglect as a political issue, might dilute its own credibility of being a party that pursues the policy of equidistance from the BJP and the Congress. The regional party can no longer cry central neglect nor can it claim to have a fixed set of principles as it would expose itself to criticism of resorting to political opportunism.
- Realignment Of Forces Might Lead To New Political Formation: An alliance between BJD, BJP shall mean stifling of opportunities for several leaders in both parties, especially the Conch party. This can perhaps trigger splinter groups to work on new plans to keep their political careers afloat. Lesser opportunities could also result in more people withdrawing from the party than joining.