Half Of India Likely To Be Infected With Coronavirus by Feb 2021, Says Govt Panel

New Delhi: At least half of India’s 1.3 billion population is likely to have been infected by the novel coronavirus by February 2021. However, this may help slow the spread of the disease, a government committee tasked with providing projections told news agency Reuters, reported India Today.

India’s total coronavirus tally is over 75 lakh, second only to the United States in terms of total infections.

However, coronavirus infections are decreasing in India after a peak in mid-September, with 61,390 new cases reported on average each day, according to a Reuters tally.

Projections

“Our mathematical model estimates that around 30% of the population is currently infected and it could go up to 50% by February,” Manindra Agrawal, a professor at the Indian Institute for Technology in Kanpur and a committee member, told Reuters, HT reported.

Instead, the committee of virologists, scientists and other experts, whose report was made public on Sunday, has relied on a mathematical model, the report added.

“We have evolved a new model which explicitly takes into account unreported cases, so we can divide infected people into two categories reported cases and infections that do not get reported,” Agrawal told Reuters.

Precautions and festive season

The committee warned that their projections would not hold up if precautions were not followed, and cases could spike by up to 2.6 million infections in a single month if social distancing and wearing masks are ignored.

Experts warn that with celebrations for festivals of Durga Puja and Diwali due this month and in mid-November, the number of infections could rise, the report added.