His Past Imperfect, Donald Trump Makes Future Tense For The World

You got to like Donald Trump at some point. If not because he is eccentric and unpredictable, if not because he doesn’t fit into the image of a regular politician and if not because gives a damn about the niceties of public conduct, it has to be about the way he keeps the world tense and shakes things up. A day to go before he takes over as the 47th President of the US, and all countries, including India, are busy pondering ways to handle him and the potential shifts in their equations with the US.

Disruptor – the word sits well on Trump. He, convinced about the greatness of America, would leverage the financial and military power of the US to let loose disruption. Good or bad, most countries have to deal with it now. If they manage him well, in terms of quid pro quo benefits for the US, it would work well for them. Maybe it is what they themselves require too. Because they have been dealing with the US in a certain, predictable way so far. With Trump that changes. They need to be in tune with his ‘America First’ approach. In short, he will lead the way. Others have to follow.

That being the reality, let’s bring India in.

IS INDIAN ECONOMY READY TO TAKE THE TRUMP HEAT?

About 18 percent of India’s exports are to the US. It is the country’s largest export destination. Trump’s commitment to reduce reliance on imports and boost domestic manufacturing could hit India hard. He has already voiced his strong disapproval of high tariff on American goods in India and has been insistent on reciprocal tariffs. It means while India would be required to lower its own regime, it has to stay prepared for a tougher one in the US. At a disadvantage would be products in direct competition with counterparts there. Any shift in the market in the US would impact sectors such as textiles, pharmaceuticals etc and hit its trade flow. However, Trump’s aggressive stand on China – he has threatened 60 percent tariff on Chinese goods – could work in India’s favour. US companies would find it a lucrative destination.

Whichever way it turns out, India has to stay on guard for surprises.

ASSOCIATION OF RISK & OPPORTUNITIES

Barring minor hiccups, Indo-US relations in foreign policy matters have been on an even keel ever since the days of late Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. India has managed to create steady friendship with all major powers, including Russia and China, despite leaning more towards the US. It’s likely that under Trump the US would like to use India as a counterweight to China. The result could be both negative and positive. If push comes to a shove, and India takes a stand to be with the US, it could confronting enemies on two fronts in the immediate neighbourhood – Pakistan and China. It would not like to disturb its current relationship with a superpower after Prime Minister Modi’s efforts to build a pragmatic relationship with China.

On the counter terrorism front the association can be of big utility. The power of the US can be leveraged to force Pakistan to take measures to curb anti-India terror emanating from there. Also, India can bargain for a bigger role in Afghanistan. In short, there are risks and opportunities involved in the engagement with the US. It will take great diplomatic manoeuvring to navigate the Trump era.

WHY THE DOGGY MEDIA IS CRYING BUCKETS

Our doggy media is terribly upset that Prime Minister Narendra Modi didn’t receive an invite for the inauguration of the Trump presidency. They had plans to make Modi’s presence at the event a huge affair. It appears they had boisterous captions and headlines besides a lot of razzmatazz lined up to announce India’s permanent place as a global superpower, on an equal footing with the US, under the leadership of the prime minister. The friendship between both the leaders of large democracies were supposed to be hyped up and hyperventilated for the consumption of the domestic audience. Badly for them, the invite didn’t happen.

It shouldn’t be much of a worry though. The leaders can mend relations, if it requires mending, once Trump spells out his policy priorities and outlook towards India. It has been a steady, productive association for both countries for a long time The friendship can shine again. It doesn’t require an invite.

(By arrangements with Perspective Bytes)