IMD Forecasts ‘Normal’ Southwest Monsoon This Year

Bhubaneswar: In a good news for the people, particularly farmers, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Thursday forecast that cumulative southwest monsoon over the country in 2022 is expected to be ‘normal’ at 99% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

In its long range forecast of Southwest Monsoon, the IMD said the LPA for June to September has now been revised at 87 centimeters based on data collected between 1971 and 2020. Earlier, the LPA was 88.1 centimeters based on data collected between 1961 to 2010. The forecast is with a model error of plus and minus 5%.

Monsoon rainfall between 96% and 104% of the LPA is considered to be ‘normal’.

The IMD said at present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail over the Indian Ocean. It is likely to continue till the onset of monsoon. Thereafter, enhanced probability for negative IOD condition is likely.

The Indian monsoon rainfall is influenced by a system of oscillating sea surface temperatures known as the IOD in which the western Indian Ocean becomes alternately warmer and then colder than the eastern part of the ocean.

During the southwest monsoon season (June-September),

The country receives around 868.6 mm rainfall which is about 75 percent of the annual rainfall of 1160.1 mm. Maximum rainfall of 280.4 mm is received during July, followed by 254.9 mm in August.

Earlier this week, private weather forecasting agency, Skymet, had said the southwest monsoon is expected to be ‘normal’ at 98% of the LPA.