New Delhi: Amid the global climate change resulting in erratic weather behaviour patterns, there is some good news.
India is expected to receive above-normal monsoon rainfall in 2025, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting 105% of the long-period average seasonal showers. The projection has a model error margin of 5%, officials said on Tuesday.
The southwest monsoon generally begins its advance over Kerala around June 1 and withdraws by mid-September.
This year’s rainfall projection could provide a much-needed lift to the agricultural sector, the Ministry of Earth Sciences said.
The monsoon forecast suggests that most parts of the country are likely to benefit from favourable rainfall conditions.
But the IMD predicted exceptions in a few regions. Below-normal rainfall is expected in Ladakh, the Northeast and Tamil Nadu during the four-month monsoon season.
Mrutyunjoy Mohapatra, DGM IMD, said information on the arrival of monsoon on rhe Kerala tip will be given on May 15.
Normal rainfall is defined between 96% and 104% of the 50-year average of 87 cm (about 35 inches). Any amount above this range is considered “above normal.”
According to officials, all key climate factors — including the El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — are currently in a neutral phase. Such conditions are considered to be favourable for a healthy monsoon.
El Nino is a climate pattern where surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual, leading to weaker monsoons and less rainfall in India, while IOD refers to a phenomenon in the Indian Ocean where the difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern parts affects rainfall. While a positive IOD generally brings more rain to India, a negative IOD can reduce it.
Another positive indicator in 2025 is the reduced snow cover over Eurasia and Himalayan region. Lower snow cover in these areas has historically meant stronger monsoon rainfall in India.
