IMD Predicts Normal Monsoon This Year

Bhubaneswar: With the south-west monsoon hitting the Kerala coast on Monday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said that the overall rainfall in the country between June and September is most likely to be normal this year.

Briefing the media in New Delhi, IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mahapatra said as per the second long-range forecast update, the rainfall over the country as a whole for the 2020 southwest monsoon season (June to September) is most likely to be normal which is 96 per cent to 104 per cent of the long period average (LPA) while the quantitative rainfall is likely to be 102 per cent of the LPA with a model error of ±4%.

With regard to region-wise rainfall, the IMD DG said that the rainfall is likely to be 107 per cent of LPA over North-West India, 103 per cent of LPA over central India, 102 per cent of LPA over South Peninsula and 96% of LPA over North-East India, with a model error of ± 8 %.

Besides, the monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 103 per cent of its LPA during July and 97 per cent of LPA during August with a model error of ± 9 %.

Stating that the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific and the neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, (also known as the Indian Nino) over the Indian Ocean, Mahapatra said the global models indicate that the cool ENSO conditions are likely to prevail during the monsoon season with some possibility of development of weak La Nina (a climate pattern that describes the cooling of surface ocean waters along the tropical west coast of South America) conditions in the later part of the monsoon season.