Is Cyclone Brewing In Bay? Too Early To Predict, Says IMD; Check May 10 Forecast In Weather Models

Bhubaneswar: A cyclonic circulation is likely to form over South Andaman Sea and the neighbourhood around May 4. Under its influence, a low-pressure area is likely to form over the same region around May 6. It is likely to become more marked during the subsequent 24 hours, the Bhubaneswar Meteorological Department tweeted on Monday.

According to the MeT office, the probability of cyclogenesis (formation of depression) during the next 120 hours is moderate and it is difficult to predict whether the system will intensify further or not. “Probable path of the cyclone and its landfall are unclear even though different models hint at the cyclone,” IMD senior scientist, RK Jenamani said.

Though there is a consensus over the formation of low pressure and subsequent intensification by various models, these show variation in its path, intensity and where it will make landfall, he said.

“We don’t make any prediction or forecast till we have concrete data. We still have time and do not want to create unnecessary panic among people now,” he said, adding that IMD depends extensively on the experience of its team besides the multi-model ensemble.

According to Skymet weather agency, environmental conditions, including sea surface temperature of around 29 to 30 degree Celsius over the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea, are favourable for the intensification of the system into a depression. Any tropical system over the Andaman Sea reaching the stage of depression, stand a fair chance of growing to a storm, at this time of the season.

Centre for Environment and Climate (CEC), SOA-Bhubaneswar, director Sarat Sahu said it is very likely that the low pressure will intensify into a cyclonic storm and may turn into a severe cyclonic storm. “It may cross the Odisha-Bengal coast around May 10. In case it heads towards Odisha, districts like Kendrapara, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Balasore, Mayurbhanj and Keonjhar will be affected. We have to wait till May 5 or 6 to get a clear picture about the cyclone,” he added.

Different weather models have predicted that the low-pressure may intensify into a cyclone and cross the coast around May 10.

According to Windy.com, the system is likely to move close to Sagar Islands and impact Balasore and Mayurbhanj in Odisha. Notably, it had earlier tracked its movement towards Odisha.

The American GFS model and European ECMWF model have predicted the movement of the system towards Andhra Pradesh coast near Visakhapatnam and Odisha coast between Paradip and Balasore on May 10, respectively.

The CMC Models show that the system is likely to move towards Odisha coast near Gopalpur.

Notably, storms during the month of May threaten Myanmar, Bangladesh, West Bengal and Odisha. Between 2011 and 2021, the Bay of Bengal has witnessed six storms, including the extremely severe cyclonic storm ‘Fani’ which made landfall in Odisha near Puri on May 3, 2019, with wind speed of 175-185 kmph gusting up to 205 kmp.

Amphan roared into West Bengal, around 20km east of Sagar Island in the Sunderbans, packing winds gusting to a top speed of 185 kmph on May 21, 2020. The following year, cyclone Yaas battered the northern coastline of Odisha with powerful winds and rains as it made landfall at Bahanaga block with a sustained wind speed of 130 to 140 kmph gusting up to 155 kmph on May 26.

The other three tropical storms – Viyaru (2013), Roanu (2016), Mora (2017) – struck Bangladesh near Chittagong.