Bhubaneswar: Odisha could be staring at another cyclone this October as a moderate La Niña is expected to develop by the end of September.
Latest data shared by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates a 55 per cent likelihood that sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific will cool to La Niña levels from September to November. This could increase sea surface temperatures and moisture in the Bay of Bengal, creating an environment conducive to more frequent and intense cyclones in the region.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra mentioned prevailing neutral El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions.”A transition to La Niña is likely soon, potentially leading to tropical storm formation. La Niña years often see post-monsoon cyclones, particularly in the north Bay of Bengal, where longer sea tracks support storm intensification. The La Niña expected this year is likely to be moderate though,” TNIE reported, quoting him.
He, however, added that cyclone predictions can only be made about 15 days before a system forms.
Odisha, along with Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal, faces heightened vulnerability due to historical exposure to cyclones during this period, particularly from October to December.
“1971, 1999 and 2013 were the La Nina years when Odisha saw cyclones. But we cannot forecast the same for this year as of now,” said Director of Centre for Environment and Climate (CEC) of Siksha ‘O’ Anusandhan, Sarat Sahu.
According to weather expert Surendranath Pasupalak, there is a 70-80% probability of a cyclone forming in the Bay of Bengal in the months of October and November. “Though a scenario for cyclone formation is evolving, we cannot make any exact prediction now,” he added.
Odisha has a history of being battered by cyclones emerging from the Bay of Bengal. The super cyclone of 1999 had hit the state on October 29, leaving behind an unprecedented trail of devastation. Phalini (2013), Hudhud (2014), Titli (2018) and Severe Cyclone Dana (2024) also occurred in October while Fani, a May cyclone, tore through Puri in 2019.