Maharashtra Elections: In A Politically Splintered State, Will Independents Be The Game Changer?

Mahayuti vs Maha Vikas Aghadi – it’s an electoral Mahabharat in Maharashtra, albeit a lot more convoluted as battles go. As many as 2,086 independents are among 4,136 candidates in the fray. Some foisted by parties to undercut own alliance partners, some to neutralise the rival formation and some confident of making it on their own. It can go down as the messiest election ever in the country.

Given how the current equations stand, any attempt at predicting a result would be an exercise in stupidity. A hung assembly is the only clear possibility right now, and one can be certain of one reality: independents will call the shots in the formation of the next government, either by damaging the chances of candidates of any of the alliances or by winning in sufficient strength to dictate terms to larger parties. Maharashtra should brace itself for tumultuous political times.

There are 288 seats in the state assembly, and 145 is the majority mark. Among the national parties, the biggest contender for power, the BJP, is contesting only on 148 seats. The Congress on 101. After the 2019 assembly elections, the two big regional parties have suffered a near vertical split. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, part of the Maha Vikas Aghadi, led by the Congress, has put up 94 candidates, while Sharad Pawar’s NCP 88. Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena, of the BJP-led Mahayuti, has fielded 80 and Ajit Pawar’s NCP 53.

Considering the internal tussle within both alliances, and the confused and conflicting messages they send out to the voters, neither is likely to touch the magic mark of 145. According to media reports, all parties are backing influential independent candidates to sabotage the prospects of their own alliance partners. Even at the local level party functionaries are working out arrangements beneficial to them despite orders from the top to fall in line. It means the election has gone hyper local. In an election with no apparent favourites or wave, any shift at the local political dynamics can have a significant impact on the results.

That’s a good sign for the independents. The difference between them and independents earlier is, they either belong to parties denied seats due to coalition seat-sharing compulsion or they are locally entrenched enough to win in a multi-cornered contest. In most cases they have the tacit support of their original party and its support base. What if among them they manage to win say 50 seats or more? Well, that throws the possibilities wide open. They will dictate terms on any party on the formation of the new government.

Is it not wise for us to take a call on the next government at this point. But let’s venture a prediction and attract the tag of stupid. The next government will be headed by the BJP-led alliance, Mahayuti, with support from independents. How? The party has the resources, both in terms of financial resources and the power central enforcement agencies at its disposal, to wean a good number of independents to its side. If they are accommodated in the government or made offers they find tempting enough, it would be advantage Mahayuti.

(By arrangements with Perspective Bytes)