Monsoon To Be Normal This Year: Skymet

New Delhi: Monsoon rain in India is expected to be normal in 2019, the country’s only private weather forecasting agency Skymet said on Monday.

Skymet’s announcement could bring cheers to the Indian economy as the irrigation-starved agriculture sector is critically dependent on 70 per cent monsoon rain for increased output. Agriculture income is fundamental to the GDP growth rate which, at present, stands at 7.6 per cent.

“There is a more than 50 per cent chance that India will get normal rainfall and only a small probability of excessive rainfall, Skymet CEO Jatin Singh told media persons here.

India defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of a 50-year average of 89cm for the entire four-month season beginning June.

The monsoon season delivers about 70% of India’s annual rainfall and is key to the success of the farm sector in Asia’s third-biggest economy.

“There’s a 50 per cent chance of El Nino, or warm Pacific waters that impact summer rains in India, by the beginning of the monsoon season, Singh, said. But there’s a probability of El Nino waning the monsoon as it gets underway, he cautioned.

The big takeaway from Skymet forecast for 2019:

• Skymet sees more than 50 per cent chance that the monsoon will be between 96 and 104 per cent of the long-period average.
• The second most likely outcome is of below-normal (90-96 per cent of average) monsoon.
• There’s only a very small chance of drought or excess monsoon, says Skymet.
• The forecaster will release another update in the first week of April.

Skymet’s forecast has gained wider acceptance over the years as it has matched the rainfall activity received during the monsoon.

The Indian Meteorological Department also issues its monsoon forecast in April every year.