Bhubaneswar: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday issued a red warning for extremely heavy rainfall in Odisha over the next two days. This comes as a low-pressure area over the southeast and adjoining east-central Bay of Bengal is expected to intensify into a cyclonic storm by the morning of October 26, moving west-northwestwards toward the North Andhra Pradesh and adjoining South Odisha coasts over the subsequent two days.
Under the influence of the cyclonic circulation over southeast and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal and Andaman Islands, a low-pressure area formed over southeast and adjoining east central Bay of Bengal at 5.30 am. It is most likely to persist over the same region and intensify into a depression on October 24. Thereafter, it is very likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify further into a deep depression on October 25 and into a cyclonic storm over the Westcentral Bay of Bengal by October 26 morning. It would then continue to intensify further and move westnorthwestwards towards North Andhra Pradesh and adjoining South Odisha coasts during the subsequent two days,” the IMD said in its midday bulletin.
If the developing weather system in the Bay of Bengal reaches the required cyclonic storm intensity, it will be officially named Arnab, contributed by Bangladesh.
IMAPACT ON ODISHA
October 26: After a brief dray weather spell, light to moderate rain or thundershower may resume at a few places in the districts of Baleshwar, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Jagatsinghpur, Kataka, Gajapati, Ganjam, Puri, Khordha, Nayagada and at one or two places in Sundaragada, Jharsuguda, Baragada, Sambalpur, Debagada, Anugola, Dhenkanal, Kendujhar, Mayurbhanj, Sonpur, Boudh, Nuapada, Balangir, Kalahandi, Kandhamala, Nabarangpur, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri.
A yellow warning of thunderstorm accompanied by lightning and gusty surface wind 30-40 kmph) very likely to occur at one or two places over the districts of Baleshwar, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Jagatsingh pur, Kataka, Gajapati, Ganjam, Puri, Khordha and Nayagada.
October 27
Red Warning: Heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places with extremely heavy Rainfall at one or two places in Gajapati, Ganjam and Puri, along with widespread light to moderate rainfall across all districts of the state.
Orange Warning: Heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Baleshwar, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Dhenkanal, Jagatsinghpur, Kataka, Kendujhar, Mayurbhanj, Kandhamala, Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Khordha, and Nayagada. Thunderstorms with lightning and gusty surface winds (reaching 40–50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph) over Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Gajapati, Ganjam, Puri, Khordha, and Nayagada.
Yellow Warning: Heavy rainfall at isolated places over Anugola, Boudh, Kalahandi, and Nabarangpur, along with gusty winds (30–40 kmph gusting to 50 kmph) in adjacent districts.
October 28
Red Warning: Heavy to very heavy rainfall with extremely heavy rainfall at isolated places over Rayagada, Koraput, Malkangiri, Gajapati, and Ganjam.
Orange Warning: Heavy to very heavy rainfall over Baleshwar, Bhadrak, Jajpur, Kendrapada, Jagatsinghpur, Kataka, Dhenkanal, Kendujhar, Mayurbhanj, Kalahandi, Kandhamala, Nabarangpur, Puri, Khordha, and Nayagada.
Yellow Warning: Heavy rainfall over Sundaragada, Jharsuguda, Baragada, Sambalpur, Debagada, Anugola, Sonpur, Boudh, Nuapada, and Balangir.
October 29
Orange Warning: Heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Sundaragada, Jharsuguda, Sambalpur, Kendujhar, and Mayurbhanj.
Yellow Warning: Heavy rainfall over Jajpur, Baragada, Debagada, Anugola, Dhenkanal, Sonpur, Nuapada, and Balangir
Squally weather with wind speed reaching 40-50 kmph gusting to 60 kmph is likely to commence along and off the Odisha Coast on October 26-27. Sea condition is likely to be rough to very rough along and off the Odisha Coast on these days. Fishermen are advised not to venture into the sea along & off the Odisha Coasts during this period.
OCTOBER CYCLONES
According to the North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook released by the weather bureau, there is a 68 to 100 percent probability that the low-pressure system will intensify into a depression or a higher-intensity cyclonic storm between October 23 and October 29. Coastal states including Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, and West Bengal, alongside the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, remain under close watch as these regions are expected to experience light to moderate rainfall accompanied by squally weather and winds gusting up to 60 kmph.
It further noted that October is climatologically the peak period for cyclonic activity in the Bay of Bengal due to warm sea-surface temperatures and favourable atmospheric conditions. The Super Cyclone, which hit the Odisha coast near Ersama and Balikuda in the Jagatsinghpur district with peak wind speeds of 250–260 km/h, was the most intense recorded tropical storm in the North Indian Ocean and among the most destructive in the region. On October 12, 2013, Cyclone Phailin made landfall later that day, near Gopalpur in Odisha coast. The following year, Cyclone Hudhud made landfall near Visakhapatnam, Andhra Pradesh, on October 12 with sustained winds of about 175–185 kmph with impacts in southern Odisha.
Similarly, Cyclone ‘Titli’ made the landfall near Palasa in Srikakulam district to the southwest of Gopalpur as a very severe cyclonic storm with estimated maximum sustained surface wind speed of 140-150 kmph gusting up to 165 kmph between 4.30 am and 5.30 am on October 11, 2018. Cyclone Montha crossed the Andhra Pradesh and Yanam coasts near Narasapuram/Kakinada on October 28–29, 2025, with maximum sustained winds of 90–100 km/h gusting up to 110 kmph.