Bhubaneswar: Though the southwest monsoon is expected to withdraw from Odisha in 24 hours, the state may experience heavy rain again with the likely formation of a low-pressure area over Bay of Bengal around October 22.
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), conditions are favourable for cyclogenesis (formation of depression) over Bay of Bengal during October 20-26. The NCEP GFS, ECAI and ECMWF models indicate formation of a low pressure area over Bay of Bengal on October 21, October 22 and October 23, respectively.
The models have further predicted that the system would concentrate into a depression around October 26. The ECMWF is showing depression over Bay of Bengal on October 26 with further intensification and movement towards south Odisha-north Andhra Pradesh coasts. The prediction of NCEP GFS is almost the same but it indicates movement towards Bangladesh.
Several districts in Odisha may witness heavy rainfall due to the impact of the system.
According to senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls has also predicted formation of a low-pressure area over Bay of Bengal next week. “SW monsoon withdrawal will clear the rest of India & the NE monsoon will commence in S India in the next 24 hours. A low develops near Lakshadweep this weekend then can impact Somalia & Yemen later next week. Also watch for low pressure to form in the BOB next week,” he posted on X.
Notably, the Bay of Bengal has produced some of the most intense cyclones, including the 1999 Super Cyclone and very severe cyclonic storm Phailin in 2013 that devastated Odisha and extremely severe cyclone Hudhud in 2014, and severe cyclone Dana in 2024 in the month of October.
Today’s IMD Forecast
Meanwhile, the IMD said that while condition are favourable for further withdrawal of southwest monsoon from remaining parts of country during the next 24 hours, the Northeast Monsoon rainfall activity is also likely to commence over south east peninsular region with the setting in of easterly & northeasterly winds over southern peninsular India and south & adjoining central Bay of Bengal.
It further noted that a cyclonic circulation also persists over south Bangladesh & neighbourhood.
The Met office has warned of thunderstorm/lightning and gusty surface wind speed reaching 30-40 kmph at one or two places in Malkangiri on October 15-16.