Odisha Elections 2024: Will Modi Push Do The Trick For Pratap Sarangi In Balasore?

Bhubaneswar: Balasore Parliamentary constituency in Odisha, which is going to polls on June 1, has seen intriguing electoral outcomes in the past with voters, showing no permanent allegiance to any specific party or candidate.

So, will Pratap Sarangi be able to do a Kharabela Swain, who won the seat in 1998, 1999 and 2004, and retain Balasore for BJP? He is being challenged by Congress veteran and former Union minister Srikant Jena and Lekhasri Samantsinghar of BJD, which has a strong organisation here.

Interestingly, Kharabela had won the seat with BJP-BJD were in an alliance. He is again in the fray as an Independent after being denied ticket by the BJP but is unlikely to pose any threat to the three main contenders.

WHO HAS THE EDGE?

In a truly triangular fight, it’s difficult to ascertain who has the edge. With stakes high for BJP, several top national leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra, have toured the constituency to bolster support for him. Modi highlighted the critical issues plaguing Odisha and reiterated his commitment to development and transparency. Railway Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw, who was collector of Balasore in 1999 and has a good understanding of the political topography and demography of the parliamentary constituency, camped in Balasore for four days and was seen regularly praying in the temples and chatting at roadside tea stalls with common people. He also held a roadshow there.

Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla too conducted a public meeting in Balasore. BJP heavyweights in the state – Dharmendra Pradhan, Manmohan Samal and Aparajita Sarangi – also jointly campaigned and held a roadshow to ensure an increase in the party’s vote share in all Assembly segments under this constituency.

While the sitting BJP lawmaker is confident that the good work of the BJP-led NDA government and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity will help him sail through the polls, he is also attempting to capitalise on any potential dissatisfaction or disillusionment among BJD supporters over Lekhashri’s switch of loyalty.

However, an anti-incumbency feeling is also clearly visible on the ground against him.

STRONG ORGANISATION, WEAK CANDIDATE!

The BJD has a strong organisational base in Balasore. And this will prove to be Lekhasri’s strength. However, her biggest weakness is her turncoat tag since she is making her electoral debut as a Conch candidate after being associated with the BJP for over 10 years. It is to be seen how far she has been able to convince the electorate about her sudden “change of heart” after being one of the staunchest critics of the BJD and Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik.

The BJD will be hoping for a split in the BJP vote share with Lekhasri as its candidate. It has been projecting her candidature as a symbol of women’s empowerment. In fact, she was the last of the seven women Lok Sabha candidates announced by BJD, fulfilling the Chief Minister’s promise of reserving 33% of party tickets for women.

Apart from the woman card, Lekhasri might also use her OBC status to woo voters. She is also highlighting the Odisha CM’s clean image and development agenda.

SRIKANT MAY UPSET BJP, BJD’S MATH

The battle of ballots in Balasore turned even more interesting with the entry of Srikant, who was MP in 2009 and became a minister in the UPA government. He can pose a serious challenge to his BJP and BJD rivals as people recall him for his development work. His supporters credit him with the establishment of an AIIMS satellite centre at Balasore and construction of a major flyover in the city.

Srikant’s political experience may attract traditional Congress supporters and potentially divide the anti-BJP vote share. He also believes that the developmental work he carried out in Balasore during his previous tenure will contribute to his victory.

In 2019, Congress candidate from Balasore Nabajyoti Patnaik, son of former Congress state chief Niranjan Patnaik, secured 180,000 votes despite being in the third position. Srikant, who is said to be marshalling his resources carefully, has to garner more votes than him to have a visible impact in the contest.

In the 2009 elections, despite receiving only 35.17 per cent of the votes, Srikant emerged victorious as the Congress candidate. In the 2014 elections, the BJD nominee secured 41.33 per cent of the votes and won by a margin of 1.41 lakh votes. The BJP vote share saw a significant increase in its vote share from 27.81 per cent to 41.79 per cent in 2019 elections, surpassing the BJD due to internal divisions within the regional party.

NILAGIRI BATTLE TO BE DECISIVE!

All three parties have an eye on Nilagiri Assembly segment which falls under Balasore LS seat. While Lekhasri is reaching out to the people as a daughter-in-law of Nilagiri, Pratap has won twice from the Assembly seat. The BJP, BJD and Congress had also delayed announcement of candidates for the seat. BJD has nominated Sukanta Nayak, who rejoined the regional party in April after quitting BJP. He won the seat twice in 2014 and 2019 albeit on different party symbols. The fight here is likely to be intense and the Nilagiri votes might prove decisive in determining the Lok Sabha result.

IN WHOSE FAVOUR ARE THE MLA NUMBERS?

The Balasore comprises seven assembly seats – Badasahi (SC), Jaleswar, Bhograi, Basta, Balasore, Remuna (SC), and Nilagiri. In 2019 elections, the BJP won Badasahi, Balasore and Nilagiri while BJD emerged victorious in the remaining five seats. A year later, the BJD wrested the Balasore assembly segment from BJP in the by-election held on November 3, 2020.

In September 2023, the BJD expelled its Remuna MLA Sudhansu Sekhar Parida after he was accused of misappropriating government subsidy worth Rs 3 crore meant for farmers.

Amid the changed political equations and apparent discontent over ticket distribution, the result is anyone’s guess.