Odisha’s CO2e Emission To Rise 5-Fold By 2050, Says NCAER Study

Bhubaneswar: Per capita CO2e emission in Odisha is set to witness a five-fold increase in next two and half decades, a new study said.

The state will continue to be on a path of high emission unless corrective policy interventions are undertaken, said the study report released by Delhi-based National Council of Applied Economic Research (NCAER).

In per capita terms, net emission from Odisha at 6.15 tonne CO2e is higher than that of the national average of 2.24 tCO2e. In the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the per capita emission will rise to 6.69 tCO2e in 2030 and 31.41 tCO2e by 2050, it said.

The study, titled ‘Challenges and policy implications of a low carbon pathway for Odisha – an integrated assessment modelling approach’, was carried out by NCAER with support from researchers of NISER and the Celestial Earth.

Though Odisha accounts for 3.47 per cent of India’s population, net GHG emission from Odisha stood at 9.3 pc of the country in 2018, it said. Citing the GHG Platform India 2022 report for Odisha, the study said overall emission in the state has increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 7.85 pc, from 102.73 tCO2e in 2005 to 274.54 tCO2e in 2018. This indicates that lowering carbon footprint is essential for state’s development strategy.

Projecting that Odisha’s economy will record around 6 pc per annum growth over the model run period of 2022-2050, it said the state will require a $467 billion investment in the base run in the energy sector from 2025 to 2050. This will be around 7.3 pc of cumulative SDP for the period 2025-50 in the state.

Accordingly, it has been suggested that understanding feasible policy choices and their financial implications on part of the government and policy makers is a must for adopting the correct policy interventions for the transition towards a low carbon pathway.

Since Odisha has high coal deposits and presence of other minerals, the dependence on fossil fuel, despite projected reduction to a certain extent during the study period will continue to be high in the energy/fuel mix. The role of carbon capture and storage is a technology that Odisha needs to invest in. The investment in green hydrogen can also be explored since the state is endowed with large number of mines facilitating the growth energy-intensive industries in the state. The government needs to play a key role in effecting the change, the report said.