Pak Army Assuming It Will Be Attacked: Experts

New Delh: As pressure is mounting on Prime Minister Narendra Modi to act against the perpetrators of the Pulwama terror attack, can he risk a military confrontation with Pakistan? The attack which has come just months ahead of the general elections, has put the Modi government in a tight spot. Experts believe that an all out war will be detrimental to India’s interest, but then the voters will settle nothing less than some kind of punitive covert measures to vote the incumbent government back to power.

What experts have to say:

1. Modi is in a tricky position. Indian forces are quite capable, but it’s not obvious what kinds of strikes would accomplish the core goal. Kashmir and Pakistan are among the few foreign policy topics that have real electoral resonance, said Paul Staniland, a political science professor and South Asia expert at the University of Chicago.

2. The stakes are too high for India to do nothing at all. Pakistan’s army is assuming it will be attacked and that Indian forces are preparing for a serious incursion of some sort, Prof Stainland said.

3. I think the situation is extremely tense. The mood in the country is extremely angry at what has happened. And moreover, there are elections in the offing. No party could afford to neglect public opinion, said Amitabh Mattoo, professor of international studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University.

4. Military options – short of two nuclear-armed rivals going to war – could range from shallow ground-based attacks and occupation of some heights along the Line of Control [ceasefire line] to restricted but precision air strikes against non-state targets in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, said Times of India quoting a defence strategist.

5. I don’t think war is an option for India right now. It’d be hard to get international support at this point. US President Donald Trump needs Pakistan on his side to get out of Afghanistan. Russia and China continue to support Pakistan. So, India’s bargaining power in this regard has actually come down in the last three years, said G K Pillai, former Union Home Secretary.

6. Another ‘one off’ surgical strike would be strategic folly. The response should not be hurried, it must be strong and credible to make Pakistan sit up and take note, and be part of a calibrated strategy to force compellence on Pakistan. We should be prepared to climb up the escalatory ladder as the situation develops. The 2016 surgical strikes were a tactical success but being a ‘one off’ operation, they did not achieve the desired strategic results, said retd Lt Gen H S Panag, who was GOC in C Northern Command.

7. Possible military response can’t be discussed in public, said G Parthasarthy, India’s former high commissioner to Pakistan.

8. India could again launch surgical strikes across the Line of Control but Pakistan is likely to be prepared. The other option is an attack using combat aircraft or armed drones on militant training camps. However, the problem is that Masood Azhar is based around Bahawalpur – and any aerial attack across the international border could lead to escalation. An attack across the The Line of Control may abate public sentiment – but will not punish the actual culprits, said Kuldip Singh, a retired Brigadier from the Indian Army.

9. There are many hawks in India who are recommending full-scale military action against Pakistan. But there are a few things to consider when contemplating full-scale war with Pakistan, he underlined.

10. First, India lacks the conventional forces overmatch over Pakistan that would allow it full control over the escalation ladder. If the element of surprise fails, Indian troops could get bogged down and there is the potential for escalation. Secondly, Pakistan’s fear of being quickly overwhelmed may encourage it to rapidly raise the stakes with nuclear threats.

Thirdly, keeping an Indian attack limited may also not be a priority of Pakistan. It would, on the contrary, be keen to escalate the conflict to a level where the threat of nuclear war becomes imminent and the international community is forced to intervene. This could allow Pakistan to “internationalise” the Kashmir conflict – it administers part of Jammu & Kashmir (Pakistan-occupied Kashmir) but insists most residents want either independence or to be under Islamabad and not New Delhi’s control, Brigadier Singh said.