Bhubaneswar: A well-marked low-pressure system, which persisted over Malaysia and adjoining Strait of Malacca at 8.30 am on Monday, is expected to intensify into a depression during the next 24 hours and further strengthen into a cyclonic storm during the subsequent 48 hours.
“The system is very likely to move west-northwestwards and intensify into a depression over south Andaman Sea during the next 24 hours. Continuing to move westnorthwestwards, it is very likely to intensify further into a cyclonic storm over south Bay of Bengal during the subsequent 48 hours,” the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in its midday bulletin.
The exact trajectory and landfall details, however, remain uncertain at this stage.
If the system develops into a storm, it will be called Senyar — meaning “lion” — a name suggested by the United Arab Emirates. It will be the second post-monsoon cyclone in the Bay of Bengal this year, following Cyclone Montha, which made landfall close to Narsapuram in Andhra Pradesh on October 28
Meanwhile, another low-pressure area is likely to form over Comorin and adjoining areas of southwest Bay of Bengal and Sri Lanka around November 25 under the influence of a cyclonic circulation over Comorin area and its neighbourhood. It is likely to become more marked thereafter.
A cyclonic circulation also persists over the southeast Arabian Sea.
“A well-marked low-pressure area lies over the Malacca Strait and the south Andaman Sea, a cyclonic circulation is active over the southwest Bay of Bengal near the Comorin area and over Sri Lanka, another cyclonic circulation is active over the Arabian Sea, and a storm is present in the Pacific Ocean with cloud clusters stretched in an east-west direction,” senior meteorologist Umasankar Das posted on X.
Weather experts have pointed to a very complicated conditions over the Bay of Bengal with the two systems competing to survive with one likely to absorb the other in the next few days. “Among the twin low-pressure systems, the one near Sri Lanka has a higher likelihood of intensifying into a cyclonic storm,” meteorologist Biswajit Sahoo said.
According to private forecaster Skymet, both weather systems are likely to move westward, keeping a safe distance from the Indian coastline. “The low pressure over Comorin is expected to merge with the system over the southeast Arabian Sea. The merger may lead to a stronger system over the southeast Arabian Sea, which could shift toward
the south-central parts between November 26 and 29. The system appears likely to meander over that region between November 25 and 29 and may move slightly closer to the Kerala coast later. Since model predictability is low beyond four days, the system will be monitored closely for further development,” it said.
It further noted that the systems have temporarily revived northeast monsoon activity and heavy rain is expected in parts of Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
In a post on X, senior meteorologist Jason Nicholls also predicted the likely formation of a cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal later this week. “Watching a low forming near Sri Lanka & another low in the southern Andaman Sea. Varied solutions & tracks so details unclear but eventual impacts on eastern India appear likely,” he added.
What does weather models indicate
The models are varying in terms of their forecasts as multiple systems are evolving together. The GFS group of model (IMDGFS & NCEP GFS) are indicating the well-marked low pressure area over Malacca Strait is likely to mover west-northwestwards and intensify into depression during the next 24 hours. Thereafter, while moving nearly northwestwrads, both the models indicate further intensification till November 26. Subsequently, the forecast tracks of the models indicate a northeastwards recurvature as it crosses the upper-level ridge line. It is likely to reach south Bangladesh coast by December 2/3 with gradual weakening after recurvature.
The ECMWF and NCUM-G models indicate the well-marked low pressure area over Malaysia & adjoining Malacca strait is likely to move initially westnorthwestward and intensify into a depression during the next 24 hours. It is likely to continue to move west-northwestwards till November 26 over south Andaman Sea. Thereafter, it is likely to move northeastwards, weaken gradually till November 29 and become less marked on November 30. However, these models are also indicating that under the influence of the cyclonic circulation over Comorin Area, a low pressure area is likely form over Comorin and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal and Sri Lanka around November 25. It is likely move initially northeastwards across Sri Lanka and emerge into southwest Bay of Bengal around Novemebr 27, intensify further and over southwest Bay of Bengal. However, while moving north-northwestwards along side Tamil Nadu & Pondicherry and cross south Andhra Pradesh coast aroundt December 1 as a weaker system
No Rainfall Warning For Odisha
The developing weather systems remain far from Odisha’s coastline as of now. There is no rainfall warning for the state during the next seven days. Amid the prevailing dry weather conditions, the state may witness a fall in the night temperature by 2-3 degrees after five days.
While stressing that the administration is fully prepared to mitigate the impact if the intensifying system shifts towards Odisha’s coastline, Revenue and Disaster Management Minister Suresh Pujari had noted: “A system is brewing over the South Andaman Sea and is over 1,000 km away from the mainland. Another low pressure system is also taking shape adjacent to it. The two systems might join and move westwards or north-westwards, while intensifying into a depression.”
The IMD, however, has forecast heavy rainfall in Tamil Nadu during November 25-27, Kerala & Mahe during November 24-26, Lakshadweep on November 24 , Andaman & Nicobar Islands during November 25 and November 29, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on November 29. Very heavy rainfall may occur in Tamil Nadu on November 24 & November 28-30, Andaman & Nicobar Islands during November 26-28, Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam on November 30. Andaman & Nicobar Islands may also experience gusty wind speeds reaching 40-50 kmph during the next 6 days.