Ukraine Attacked: What Is Vladimir Putin’s Gameplan?

New Delhi: He invaded Georgia in 2008. He didn’t stop there.

Six years later, in 2014, he annexed Crimea. He didn’t stop there.

Eight years later, on February 24, he shocked the world by ordering tanks into Ukraine and raining bombs and missiles on Ukrainians.

For months, Russian troops had been massing on Ukraine’s borders. Days before February 24, the US warned of an imminent invasion, despite Russia’s claims to the contrary. Still, the declaration of war on Ukraine took everyone by surprise.

What is on the mind of Vladimir Putin, the Russian President waging one war after another? What is his endgame?

A former spy, who is a master in the art of ‘smokes and mirrors’, he is known to be secretive. More than 20 years ago, when Boris Yeltsin, Russia’s first President, resigned and named Putin the acting President on December 31, 1999, he kept the big news away from his wife, a former flight attendant, for days.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has compared the Russian invasion with Nazi Germany’s attack in World War II.

As Russia began its military operations in the eastern part of the country, called the Donbas region, Ukraine tweeted a Hitler-Putin cartoon and wrote, “This is not a meme, but our and your reality right now”.

The comparisons with the German dictator were prompted by Hitler’s ‘Greater German Reich’ dream.

Putin too dreams of a unified Russian state: independent, influential and feared across the world.

The Cold War might have been over when he became Russia’s President, but Putin, born in that era and a former spy, remained distrustful of the West, especially its influence through NATO. The military alliance was growing and he feared it would go on to include former Soviet republics and ultimately encircle Russia.

He sees Ukraine, under Zelenskyy, as pro-West, pro-NATO, and therefore a threat to Russia.

Putin has often accused the US and its allies of ignoring Russia’s demands to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and give Moscow security guarantees.

In a television interview in 2014 — Russia, under Putin, had already annexed Crimea — Hillary Clinton, former US Secretary of State and First Lady, when asked what was his endgame, said that the Russian President ultimately wants to create a ‘Eurasian Union’ to compete with the European Union (EU), a grand vision that went beyond invading and annexing countries.

Hillary felt Putin’s grand dream was to restore Russian greatness, increasing its sphere of influence from central Asia to eastern Europe. (He once refused to read a book written by a Soviet defector).

“He has been looking for opportunities to go forward on his vision. He wants to create a ‘Eurasian Union’ to compete with EU,” she said.

Chechnya, which had broken away from Russia and was held by rebels, gave Putin an opportunity to build his grand Russia. After a series of blasts rocked Russian cities in September 1999, killing over 300 people, Putin, who was the Prime Minister, blamed the Chechen rebels for the bombings and vowed revenge.

Putin’s popularity soared, he went to war with Chechnya and wrested the region back into Russia.

Chechnya was followed by Georgia in 2008, Crimea in 2014 and now Ukraine.

Born in October 1952 in Leningrad to working-class parents, unlike other children his age, Putin dreamt of becoming a spy. After graduating in 1975, he joined the KGB and was posted in East Germany.

At KGB, his trainers found a flaw in him — Putin had a ‘diminished sense of danger’. In other words, what might seem dangerous to others might not appear risky to him. The Russian President has acknowledged this in his biography.

He resigned from the KGB to try his luck in politics and became the Deputy Mayor of St Petersburg in 1991.

Putin is considered authoritarian. He has been Russia’s President for over 20 years during which, backed by the KGB and oligarchs, he has waged many wars, locked up dissenting oligarchs, silenced and jailed critics, and accused of poisoning his detractors.

It is said that he picked up his authoritarian trait from his former boss Anatoly Sobchak, the Mayor of St Petersberg, whom he admired.

Putin, who will remain in power till 2036, also loves stunts, diving into the Black Sea, fishing, appearing bare-chested, riding a horse or a Harley Davidson bike or flying a plane, which have helped cement a tough guy image of him among Russians.

Also read: https://odishabytes.com/a-personal-story-that-putin-told-hillary-about-her-mother-the-russian-presidents-eurasian-union-dream/