Bhubaneswar: Still smarting from defeat in the 2024 twin elections, the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) walked the political tightrope with caution by abstaining from voting during Tuesday’s Vice President polls, a throwback to its strategy 13 years ago. But can this help Naveen Patnaik & Co reset the party’s narrative and turnaround its sagging fortunes?
While the compulsions behind the regional party’s decision, though not a healthy sign in a parliamentary democracy, are understandable and certain political opponents and observers are critical about it, the challenges before the regional party are quite varied and complicated. Which is why it is important to analyse what could have prompted such a decision.
Here are the plausible reasons:
- Aligning With BJP Would Weaken It Further: The BJD apparently lost the plot in the 2024 elections with the BJP using the ‘Odia Asmita’ card effectively to upstage it. What has compounded the BJD’s woes in recent years, especially post 2019, is its tacit understanding with the saffron party, evident from it repeatedly supporting the NDA cause at the Centre. To battle this perception, Naveen doesn’t want to be seen to be directly supporting the BJP-led dispensation anymore, even though by abstaining it might be indirectly helping the NDA candidate C P Radhakrishnan.
- Can’t Yield Opposition Space To Congress In Odisha: If the BJD would have opted to vote for INDIA bloc’s nominee B Sudershan Reddy, it could have aided the Congress’ agenda and growth in the state. A stronger Congress could dilute BJD’s role as the main Opposition party in Odisha. Hence, by abstaining it has refrained from getting identified with the INDI alliance, thereby keeping its claim of being equidistant from both the national-level coalitions.
- Appearing Neutral Would Keep Probe Agencies At Bay: Considering its own weaknesses and the allegations against some of its leaders, who benefited during the party’s 24-year regime, the BJD leadership at this juncture cannot dare to upset the BJP central bosses, who BJD leaders fear can damage them by ordering probes by central agencies into the allegations during the BJD rule.
- Keeping 2029 Options Open: With no elections in the near future, the BJD, by abstaining, would want to keep both national-level alliance options open for the future. Depending on the political scenario and its situation it can go it alone or align with either NDA or INDIA before 2029 polls.
- Quelling Intra-Party Dissension: By abstaining it has attempted to put a lid on growing discontentment within the party as opinion is sharply divided on which side to take. For now, Naveen has chosen to play it safe.
Seemingly, the BJD’s stance in the V-P elections is aimed not only at damage control but also as the first tangible step towards distancing itself from its covert liaison with the BJP. The party bosses, considering their experience and political acumen, would surely be expected to know that they have to gradually counter the widely prevalent public perception of BJD being a friendly Opposition to ruling BJP and be ready for the next acid test: the panchayat and municipal polls in 2027.
To make its revival chances more realistic, the BJD has to rework its agenda and recreate its narrative of being truly Odisha’s party that would fight for the state’s interests. It can’t afford to be seen serving the purpose of a few vested interest individuals/groups and acting subservient to any national party. To rebuild its own credibility, the party has to recalibrate and set its house in order; else the exodus of leaders and workers would only grow in the months to come. How Naveen would handle the V K Pandian factor while assuaging the feelings of those against him would be one of the toughest tests for the BJD president in his 28-year-old political career.
Notably, when it comes to V-P elections, the BJD’s stand has fluctuated ever since it officially cut off the umbilical cord with BJP in the run-up to 2009 polls. In 2012, it abstained from voting in the elections that saw UPA’s Hamid Ansari defeat NDA’s Jaswant Singh. Five years later, Naveen supported his ‘friend’ and UPA nominee Gopalkrishna Gandhi, who lost the polls to NDA’s Venkaiah Naidu. In 2022, BJD chose to go with NDA’s candidate Jagdeep Dhankhar, who defeated UPA’s Margaret Alva. This shifting of sides by the BJD not only makes it evident that the party plays the “equidistant” card depending on its political necessities, but also acts as a reminder that the BJD is capable of reinventing itself like it did 13 years ago, when Naveen aborted an alleged coup attempt by Pyarimohan Mohapatra and balanced the ruling UPA and opposition NDA effectively at the Centre. But then 2025 is not 2012, and the BJD’s most effective weapon – central neglect – might not yield it the same electoral gains any more. Naveen, too, is aging and the party cadres are increasingly becoming directionless. Talks about who would succeed Naveen, too, is adding to the confusion.
In such a critical situation, can Naveen prove his political mettle yet again and resurrect the BJD? Or, will the BJD slide further down? The countdown has certainly begun.