Bhubaneswar: Two issues have put the Biju Janata Dal (BJD) in a tight spot. It’s strategy to deal with the recent crimes against women in Odisha on the one hand and the upcoming vice president election, on the other, could very well bring its much-avowed policy of equidistance from the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress under the microscope.
The state Congress appealing it to bring a no-confidence motion against the Mohan Majhi government in the next session of the Assembly likely to be convened in a few weeks on the issue of growing crimes against women in Odisha has put the Naveen Patnaik-led party’s moves under the lens.
While the motion is unlikely to threaten the one-year-old BJP government, given the ruling party’s strength of 81 MLAs including three Independents compared to the Opposition’s 66, the political optics could be significant.
If the BJD agrees to OPCC president Bhakta Charan Das’ dare and moves a no-confidence motion, the BJP will not hesitate to label the Naveen-led party as the Congress’ B-team. Conversely, staying neutral could draw criticism from the Congress, which may accuse it of colluding with the BJP, a charge that has damaged the regional outfit’s fortunes in the last few years especially the 2024 twin polls.
The BJD’s dilemma is compounded by Jagdeep Dhankhar’s resignation. All eyes will be on who BJD supports in the Vice President election to be held this year. More so because of the unpleasant situation it found itself in a few months ago during the Waqf Bill passage in Parliament.
Has Bhakta’s Googly Trapped BJD?
The Congress has offered to support the BJD, the main Opposition party in the state with 51 MLAs, if it brings a no-confidence motion against the BJP government. “If the BJD claims to be fighting against the government over atrocities against women, it should bring no-confidence motion since it has the numbers. The Congress will support the BJD on this issue,” Das said addressing a presser on Wednesday.
The OPCC president further stated that Congress is ready to move a no-confidence motion if BJD fails to do so and sought the latter’s support.
The regional party is yet to react to the proposal, with party leaders saying BJD president and Leader of Opposition Naveen Patnaik would take a final call after internal consultations with senior leaders.
The BJD has so far kept its agitation distinct from the Congress. It called for Lok Seva Bhawan gherao and Balasore Bandh on July 16 over the death by self-immolation of a student of FM College, a day prior to Congress’ 12-hour Odisha bandh.
If the regional party backs the motion, it might indicate a possible shift in its political alignment. If it doesn’t, the long-standing narrative of tacit understanding with the BJP might resurface. Also, if the Congress brings a no-confidence motion and the BJD does not support it, the regional party will be accused of betraying the people of the state. However, supporting the motion might help the Congress to position itself as the ‘real opposition’ to the BJP.
Failure to Oppose Openly Will Harm BJD
Congress has only 14 MLAs. Yet, in the past year, it has challenged the Majhi government more aggressively than the BJD, which has been accused of being a ‘friendly opposition’. Be it in the Assembly or on the streets, Congress has been left no stone unturned to voice to oppose the BJP. The suspension of 12 out of 14 Congress MLAs for protests in the Assembly is a case in point.
This aggressive stance of the Congress is being seen as an attempt by the grand old party to position itself as the ‘real opposition’ in the state.
In the current political landscape, the BJD risks losing ground to Congress if it does not directly oppose the government. This realisation, possibly, forced the regional party to take on the BJP dispensation on the FM College student’s death case by marching towards Lok Seva Bhawan in full force.
Vice Presidential Election: A Litmus Test
While the BJD has opposed the BJP in the state in a calibrated manner, it has bailed out the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government at the Centre on several contentious issues in the last 10 years.
However, the BJD earlier this year saw its first major intra-party dissension since its defeat in the 2024 state elections following shift in its stance during the voting on the Waqf (Amendment) Bill in the Rajya Sabha. Its unclear stand after initially opposing the Bill brought to the fore discontent and exposed fissures in the party.
Now, the election to the post of Vice President will prove to be a litmus test for the BJD, which had earlier asserted that it would play the role of a strong and vibrant Opposition in Rajya Sabha and make the Centre accountable on all issues.
Supporting the NDA candidate would prove detrimental for it in state politics where the BJP is in power. It will prove to be an albatross around its neck, having been in the past dubbed as an unofficial ally of the Modi government at the Centre.
The predicament here is that supporting the Congress-led INDIA alliance candidate won’t do any good either.
These developments may also have an impact on the upcoming students’ polls and panchayat and municipal elections in 2017 in the state. The BJD has a strong presence in most colleges and universities and an equally strong organisation at the grassroots level. Its decisions now might influence its fate in these elections.
The BJD faces a twin challenge since the Congress is also working on strengthening its roots in Odisha ahead of the polls.
In such a scenario, the perception of being a ‘friendly opposition’ to the BJP government can prove to be damaging for the regional party in the long run. It has to wield the ‘strong opposition’ weapon to revive its electoral fortunes.