Where Is Possible Cyclone Mocha Heading? Check IMD GF & Other Forecast Models

Bhubaneswar: While meteorological conditions building up favourably for the first storm of this season, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) in its Tropical Weather Outlook issued on Thursday said that IMD-GFS weather model indicates that the system may move towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast and intensify into very severe cyclonic storm category.

According to the MeT office, a cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over Southeast Bay of Bengal around May 6. Under its influence, a Low Pressure Area is likely to form over the same region around May 7. It is likely to concentrate into a Depression over Southeast Bay of Bengal on May 8. Thereafter, it is likely to intensify into a Cyclonic Storm while moving nearly northwards towards central Bay of Bengal. The cyclonic storm may take shape around May 9.

It further said that the model is indicating north-northwestwards movement till May 10 and northeastwards recurvature thereafter towards southeast Bangladesh and adjoining Myanmar coasts.

NCMRWF Unified Model (NCUM), on the other hand, is indicating northwestwards movement towards Tamil Nadu coast and emergence into southeast & adjoining eastcentral Arabian Sea.

According to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the low pressure over Southeast Bay of Bengal may form around May 7, Depression over the same region and adjoining South Addaman Sea around May 9 with gradual north-northwestwards movement and intensification into cyclonic storm around May 10. It is indicating north-northeastwards recurvature from May 11 onwards towards Myanmar coast.

While all these models are indicating intensification into a very severe category storm, there is large variation with respect to the track, the IMD said.

American GFS, however, is indicating that the possible cyclone is heading towards Bangladesh coast.

Upon its intensification into a cyclonic storm, the system will be called Cyclone Mocha, a name suggested by Yemen. It originates from the Yemeni city Mocha (or Mokha) located on the Red Sea coast. Long known for its coffee trade, the port city also gave its name to the famous Mocha coffee.

Meanwhile, the MeT office has issued advisory for fishermen, warning them against venturing into the Bay of Bengal, which is likely to experience squally weather from May 6.

Also Read: Cyclone Mocha: Check Expected Weather & Advisory By IMD

On May 6, squally weather with wind speed reaching 40-45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph is very likely over Southeast Bay of Bengal. Wind speed reaching 40-45 kmph gusting to 55 kmph is likely over Southeast & adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal on May 7. The subsequent 24 hours may witness wind speed reaching 45-55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph) over Southeast & adjoining Southwest Bay of Bengal.

While the IMD is yet to issue any specific warning for Odisha, the government has already put collectors of 18 coastal and adjoining districts and officials of 11 departments on the alert. All cyclone-prone districts are kept in a state of readiness. Districts and line departments along with the NDRF, ODRAF, and others are in readiness for any possible eventuality.

On May 8 last year, cyclonic storm ‘Asani’ had developed in the Bay of Bengal but later fizzled out and later crossed Andhra coast as a Depression. The severe cyclonic storm ‘Yaas’ made landfall in Odisha’s Balasore district on the morning of May 26, 2021, while Cyclone Amphan made landfall between the Sagar islands of West Bengal and the Hatiya islands of Bangladesh on the evening of May 20, 2020.

The last storm forming in Bay of Bengal  in April was ‘Fani’, which made landfall over the Odisha coast near Puri as an extremely severe cyclonic storm on May 3, 2019.