Will Narendra Modi Factor Do The Trick For BJP In Odisha?

Bhubaneswar: Is Odisha witnessing a wave of change as being claimed by the BJP leaders? Is the electoral equations changing in the state, which has in previous polls not much impacted by Narendra Modi wave?

Modi’s first two ‘Vijay Sankalp Yatra’ rallies in Berhampur and Nabarangpur, where he set the government formation narrative by announcing June 10 as the date for swearing in of a BJP CM in Bhubaneswar, is said to have enthused the party rank and file.

Has this confidence of BJP made the BJD uncomfortable ahead of upcoming elections? Will BJD’s counter with ‘Operation Lotus’ theory cut the ground from under its opponent’s feet.

A SIX IN FIRST BALL

Modi set a narrative for Odisha, where the BJP is contesting the elections with his face and charisma, in his first two rallies. He declared June 4 as the expiry date of the BJD government and also extended an invite to the people for swearing-in ceremony of a BJP CM, who he said will be picked on June 6, in Bhubaneswar on June 10.

Giving the example of Tripura, where the saffron party pulled a remarkable performance not only by matching the CPI (Marxist)‘s vote share but also by obtaining a majority of seats for the first time, he exuded confidence about making ‘Lotus’ (the party symbol) bloom in Odisha this time.

It was followed with intense campaigning by national BJP leaders who reiterated every word spoken by Modi while pushing for a double-engine government in Odisha.

PLAUSIBLE EFFECTS OF SARKAR NARRATIVE

While the government formation narrative seems to have filled the saffron camp with vigour, energy and determination, it can also influence the fence sitters, who are yet to make up their minds on who to vote. This apart, it can deter bureaucracy/official machinery from siding with the BJD and ensure their neutrality. It can also impact donors and money bags from supporting only the ruling party and help it in getting donations from businessmen.

Which is why the BJP leaders and its candidates are hammering the Modi narrative into the mind of the people of the state by repeating it again and again.

BJD’S MEAK COUNTER

While Modi is kicking ball after ball into BJD goal post, the latter has failed to put up a strong counter to his narrative. BJD president Naveen Patnaik is yet to sharpen his arsenal against the saffron party. The other star campaigner, V K Pandian, has confined his attack to BJP’s state leaders and Dharmendra Pradhan, who is contesting from Sambalpur LS seat. While several BJD heavyweights along with Modi have unleashed an oratorical onslaught, Naveen and Pandian seems to be the only people deflecting the spears from saffron camp in the battlefield. No other voice can be heard from the Conch fold putting up a strong argument against the BJP.

Pandian stating that BJP’s strategy is to win 50 to 60 assembly seats and break BJD to form a government and the saffron party later claiming that several leaders of the regional party are in touch with it has not helped the former’s case.

ODIA ASIMTA & LEADERSHIP ISSUE

BJP has entered the 2024 battle with Odia Asmita (Odia Pride) and development as its poll planks. Not only state leaders, Modi, Amit Shah, J P Nadda and other national leaders have been wielding the Odia Asmita weapon and pulling no punches in their attack against the Naveen-led BJD government. While Nadda cautioned people of Odisha about an attempt to “bring outsiders” to the helm in the government, Modi promised that BJP will ensure that a daughter or son of the soil is sworn in as its CM if it comes to power in the state.

The BJD has portrayed BJP as “anti-people” and “anti-development”, but has fallen short in its retaliation when it comes to Odia Asmita. There is also confusion over who will be the CM if the BJP wins a majority in Vidhan Sabha as the party is contesting the poll under Modi’s leadership and has not named its probable candidate for the post.

ROADSHOW IN BHUBANESWAR & RALLIES IN W ODISHA

Modi will embark on a roadshow, his second in five years, in Bhubaneswar from 8 pm on Friday. Ten icons of Odia culture and tradition will find a place in this event in what appears to be an attempt by the BJP to sharpen its Odia Asmita arsenal. After a night halt at Raj Bhawan, he will address three rallies in Kandhamal, Balangir and Bargarh, which are going to polls in the second round elections on May 20, on Saturday.

Modi had tried to change the tide in BJP favour with two rallies in its weak spot, South Odisha, earlier this month. Can his second round of campaigning prove to be a game changer for the saffron party?

In 2019, the BJP won all the five Lok Sabha seats in western Odisha – Bargarh, Sundargarh, Balangir, Sambalpur and Kalahandi, 2 in north (Mayurbhanj & Balasore) and one in coastal (Bhubaneswar).

While Naveen could withstand the Modi wave in 2014 and 2019, but can he do it again ? Or will Modi change the maths this time and make Lotus bloom in Odisha with his marathon campaign?