Bhubaneswar: A weather model has predicted formation of a cyclonic storm over Bay of Bengal and it expected movement towards Odisha coast in the next 10 days, the IMD said in its North Indian Ocean Extended Range Outlook for Cyclogenesis issued on Thursday.
The GFS of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) has forecast formation of a low pressure area over eastcentral Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea around May 16. Thereafter, the low pressure system is likely to move northwestwards and intensify into a depression over the same area around May 17. The model also indicates further intensification of the system into a cyclonic storm by May 19 while moving towards Odisha coast.
On the other hand, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model indicates formation of a feeble low pressure area/cyclonic circulation over eastcentral Bay of Bengal around May 17, which is likely to move further northwestwards towards north Bay of Bengal by May 19.
The EC-AIFS model has predicted probable cyclogenesis around May 15 over eastcentral Bay of Bengal and its likely initial movement towards north-northwestwards over central parts of north Bay of Bengal before recurving northeastwards towards Bangladesh coast by May 20.
The ECMWF ensemble model predicts low to moderate (30-40%) probability of cyclogenesis over eastcentral and adjoining northeast Bay of Bengal during May 17-18. The ECMWF extending range prediction system suggests low (20-30%) probability of cyclogenesis over the same region during both the weeks.
It further stated that most weather models, including IMD GFS, NCUM, GEFS, NEPS, ECMWF and NCEP-GFS, are in consensus about the increase cross-equatorial flow over south Bay of Bengal and north Equatorial Indian Ocean during the next 7 days and development of a shear zone over central Bay of Bengal and adjoining north Andaman Sea. However, IMD GFS and NCUM-G as well as their ensemble counterparts GEFS and NEPS indicate seasonal southwesterly flow over Bay of Bengal during next 10 days without any cyclonic disturbances, it added.