COVID-19 Alarm: Odisha Cases May Peak To 46.2 Lakh In June-July, Predicts Joint Model

Bhubaneswar: There’s good and bad news for Odisha.

First the bad news. The novel coronavirus pandemic in Odisha will peak to around a staggering 46.2 lakh cases in June-July, which makes it 10 per cent of the state’s population (4.5 crore)!

But cheer up — the curve will start flattening from August and there is a strong probability that Covid-19 will be completely under control come the festive season in October.

The figures have been projected by a joint research team of Johns Hopkins University, Princeton University and Centre for Disease Dynamics, Economics & Policies. It’s an SEIR model, taking into account the number of people in Odisha who are infected, have recovered, are exposed and/or are prone to COVID-19.

As per the study, the total baseline projection of coronavirus infections in Odisha has been estimated at 53.905 lakh. But the number of people infected at peak time in June-July will be around 46 lakh.

The study has found that post moderation under lockdown, one infected individual will infect more than two other individuals in Odisha, triggering a geometric progression of coronavirus transmission.

A technical spokesperson of the Odisha health department predicted recently that positive cases in Odisha will cross 10,000 by June.

The number of coronavirus cases in the state stands at 1,336 till date (May 24) with seven deaths being reported.