While India still has not reached the peak of coronavirus, aross the world, countries such as Spain and Australi have begun to witness what experts are calling a second wave of infections.
In the middle east, Israel, where once the virus was under control, is averaging at more than 1700 infections per day, reported Hindustan Times (HT).
The World Health Organisation (WHO) recently said that the virus is unfolding in one big wave, with no evidence that it is impacted by seasons. But it predicted that the pandemic is likely to go on for a long time, the report added.
Has India reached the peak of coronavirus?
Meanwhile India, which is in the unlock 3.0 phase, has not even touched the peak of coronavirus cases, HT quoted experts as saying. “We have not even got over the first peak in India. Our graph is still going up in a straight line. The issue of the second wave will arise once we show a decline in the cases. It is only then that we can see another peak,” Dr Lalit Kant, former scientist ‘G’ and head (Epidemiology and Communicable Diseases Division), Indian Council of Medical Research was quoted as saying by HT.
Earlier, it had been predicted that the number of cases could peak by July and the peak could come by mid-September.
“We need to establish that the curve has been contained well. The RT (or the reproductive number) has fallen below one. Which means we could prove that we have been able to bend the curve. Once it goes to a rock bottom and then comes up, we call that a second wave. I don’t see that happening in India because we may have a prolonged plateau, rather than dipping to the bottom and emerging as a second wave. It will take some time. Hopefully, we will have a vaccine by then to take care of the first curve itself,” said Dr Giridhar Babu, epidemiologist and member of the national task force of coronavirus in India in HT.
The monsoon factor
Dr Kant was quoted as saying in HT that the coronavirus infections could increase due to the monsoon. “Secondly, the influenza season starts with the monsoon. The symptoms of influenza are almost similar to Covid-19. People are currently only testing for coronavirus. If they get flu symptoms, both infections could become an addition to already existing problems”, he said.
When there be a second wave of coronavirus in India?
Unlike many other countries India has been very cautious on the reopening front. Rajesh Bhushan, the Officer on Special Duty, Ministry of Health said that reopening does lead to a spike in numbers in certain areas. “Certain countries in the world are witnessing a fresh spate of cases, but I would not call it a second wave as yet. As for India, he said, the country has been very graded in its response. We have not gone in for a sudden opening of the various activities. It has been a graded opening, that is accompanied by strong messaging by the Union and state governments about coronavirus appropriate behaviour,” he was quoted as saying in HT.
According to ICMR Chief Dr Balram Bhargava, there will be smaller peaks at different times due to the varied geography of the country. “We have also seen immense variations in the spread of infection and mortality rates in different geographies and across different demographics around the world. So, it is difficult to predict whether or not India will see a second wave of infections. There is also a wide variation in disease distribution in specific states – so one size cannot fit all,” he said in the HT report.
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