Bhubaneswar: After the initial euphoria over the monsoon moving fast towards the Indian coast and arriving early in Kerala, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said it is likely to be marginally delayed and make an onset over the state by June 1 instead of May 27.
During the earlier prediction, the MeT office had said that it could be advanced or delayed by four days. “We have not given any forecast for monsoon arrival as yet,” said IMD director general Mrutunjay Mohapatra., adding, “We had said monsoon arrival is likely to be on May 27 with an error margin of +/-4 days.”
On Thursday, the IMD said it has further advanced into some parts of Southwest Arabian Sea, some more parts of Southeast Arabian Sea, Maldives and Comorin area and South Bay of Bengal and conditions are favourable for further advance of monsoon over some more parts of South Arabian Sea, entire Maldives and adjoining areas of Lakshadweep and some more parts of Comorin area during next 48 hours.
The monsoon’s progress has been stalled since May 20 though it reached Andaman and Nicobar Islands a week before its usual date on May 16. The conditions for its arrival in Kerala would become favourable only if the winds gain stability and strength. The monsoon track map indicates that it is currently a day late than usual.
“Monsoon will progress but we can expect a weak onset over Kerala. The south-westerly winds are not very strong and the normal monsoon surge is not expected. Light to moderate rainfall is likely over Kerala with isolated heavy rain over some regions. Following the onset, its progress will not be very fast and hence we cannot say immediately how and when it will cover central India. This could lead to a marginal setback for early sowing,” vice president, climate change and meteorology, Skymet Weather, Mahesh Palawat told Hindustan Times.
While IMD hinted at very little chance of monsoon rains in Odisha by June 10, Weather expert Surendranath Pasupalak said the prediction is unlikely to change since there are no signs of low pressure in the Bay of Bengal, which could have changed the prediction, for the next 10 days.
Different places in Odisha will receive rainfall till May 31 under the impact of Nor’wester and the state will experience heatwave and high humidity thereafter with the mercury soaring to over 44 degree Celcius or more on June 3 and 4 till the onset of monsoon, Pasupalak told the media.
The regional centre of IMD, in its midday release on Thursday, said the day temperature is likely to rise by 2-3 degrees Celsius at many places in the state in the next three days. There is also a possibility of humidity in coastal Odisha during the period.
