Bhubaneswar: While April passed off without any storm in the Indian Seas, a cyclone is likely to brew over the Bay of Bengal in the second week of May, according US weather forecast model Global Forecast System (GFS) and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
“A low pressure may develop over southwest Andaman and Nicobar Islands in South Bay of Bengal between May 8 and 9. The low pressure may develop into a deep depression by May 10 and a cyclonic storm by May 11,” they said.
As per the forecast, the cyclone may directly hit the coastal regions of Barisal and Chattogram from midnight of May 14.
International forecaster Jason Nicholls had tweeted earlier that conditions were conducive for formation of a low pressure over South Bay of Bengal this weekend or early next week with a chance to become cyclonic storm later next week. “ Interests from E India to Bangladesh & Myanmar should monitor for possible impacts,” he added.
The cyclone is likely to form between May 9 and 11 and hit the Bangladesh coast between May 13 and 16 at a speed of 170km, Weather and Climate PhD Researcher and Meteorologist at the University of Saskatchewan, Canada, Mostafa Kamal Palash posted on his Facebook on Monday.
On Tuesday, India Meteorological Department (IMD) also mentioned about likely formation of a low pressure over the Bay of Bengal after May 6. “A cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over Southeast Bay of Bengal around May 6. Under its influence, a Low Pressure Area is likely to form over the same region during subsequent 48 hours,” the agency said.
According to Tropical Weather Outlook, a cyclonic circulation is likely to form over southeast Bay of Bengal around May 6. Under its influence, a low pressure area is likely to form over the same region around May 7. It is likely to concentrate into a depression over southeast Bay of Bengal during the subsequent 48 hours. While further intensification and movement of the system is being tracked, some models indicate that the system may further intensify into a cyclonic storm, it added.
Earlier, the MeT office had said that there was less chance that the system would intensify into a cyclone. “Conditions are usually conducive for formation of cyclone during the month of May (pre-monsoon season). The possible system may turn into a depression but it is too early to predict whether it will intensify into a cyclonic storm,” Director-General of IMD Mrutyunjay Mohapatra had said.
Notably, the IMD is known for making the most accurate predictions.
Former Director of IMD Bhubaneswar centre Sarat Sahoo said that conditions are conducive for formation of a cyclone but things will become clear only after May 8-9 once the system turns into a depression or deep depression. The models are constantly changing as of now, he said that the system is likely to remain in the sea till May 11.
If the low pressure intensifies into a cyclonic storm, it will be called ‘Mocha’, a name suggested by Yemen. Mokka is a port city on the Red Sea coast of Yemen.
On May 8 last year, cyclonic storm ‘Asani’ had developed in the Bay of Bengal but later fizzled out and later crossed Andhra coast as a Depression. The severe cyclonic storm ‘Yaas’ made landfall in Odisha’s Balasore district on the morning of May 26, 2021, while Cyclone Amphan made landfall between the Sagar islands of West Bengal and the Hatiya islands of Bangladesh on the evening of May 20, 2020.
The last storm forming in Bay of Bengal in April was ‘Fani’, which made landfall over the Odisha coast near Puri as an extremely severe cyclonic storm on May 3, 2019.
