Bhubaneswar: The low pressure area, which has formed over over Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman Sea, is likely to concentrate into Depression by Tuesday and further intensify into a cyclonic storm over Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of eastcentral Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea around May 10, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) informed on Monday.
The system is likely to move in north-northwestwards till May 12 morning, recurve gradually and move north-northeastwards towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coasts. The IMD, however, is yet to make a prediction on its possible landfall. Let’s see what various weather models have to say about it.
According to Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the Met office, IMG GFS is indicating Depression on May 9 over Southeast Bay of Bengal and adjoining South Andaman Sea with intensification into Cyclonic Storm on May 10. Peak intensification is indicated up to very severe cyclonic storm stage. It is indicating initial north-northwestwards movement till May 11 and gradual north-northeastwards recurvature thereafter. Landfall is indicated around 0000 UTC (5.30 AM IST) of May 14 over Bangladesh-Myanmar coasts near 21.3N/92.5E.
Also Read: Cyclone Mocha To Form Around May 10, Intensify Into Very Severe Cyclonic Storm: IMD DG
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is indicating Depression around May 10 and rapid intensification into severe cyclonic storm on May 11. It is also indicating initial north-northwestwards movement till May 11 and north-northeastwards recurvature thereafter. Crossing is indicated on May 15 over Bangladesh-Myanmar coasts near near 23.3N/91.5E.
IMD MME (IMD GFS & NCEP GFS based) is indicating similar intensification and movement with crossing over Myanmar coast near 16.2N/94.2E, the outlook added.
Also Read: Cyclone Mocha: Forecast Models Indicate Change Of Path
Upon its intensification into a cyclonic storm, the system will be called Cyclone Mocha, a name suggested by Yemen. It originates from the Yemeni city Mocha (or Mokha) located on the Red Sea coast, which is known to have introduced coffee to the world over 500 years ago. Mocha is a chocolate-flavoured warm beverage that is a variant of coffee.
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