New Delhi: The Economic Survey 2026, tabled by finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman in Parliament on Thursday, projects 7.4% GDP growth for FY26 despite US President Donald Trump’s steep tariffs squeezing key export sectors like gems & jewellery and textiles, reports said.
The survey — officially initiating the lead-up to the Union Budget set to be released on Sunday — credits trade diversification, GST reforms, and an undervalued rupee for buffering shocks from 50% duties imposed since August 2025.
As per the survey, India’s diamond hub Surat faces acute pain, with the US absorbing over 50% of gems exports worth over $20B annually. Tariffs erode pricing edge, threatening 12-15 lakh jobs; CRISIL warns 70% export drop to rivals like Vietnam. Survey urges PLI schemes, tech upgrades for competitiveness amid $1.1% GDP exposure.
Labour-intensive apparel, bed linen hit hardest by 50% duties, risking market share to Bangladesh. MSMEs (45% exports) vulnerable; Survey notes 1.86% December export rise to $38.5bn but flags widening $25bn deficit. Domestic demand, EU/UK FTAs cushion partial losses, according to reports.
With leather, chemicals, seafood also reeling; total U S exports ($86bn) may halve to $50bn by 2027 per GTRI. Rupee’s undervaluation offsets inflation from oil, supports forex reserves. New deals (EU slashing 99.5% tariffs, UK/Oman) diversify from U.S. reliance (top partner).
