Bhubaneswar: As Odisha braces for a cyclone brewing in Bay of Bengal, meteorologist Sarat Sahu on Saturday warned that the system could significantly intensify into a severe or very severe storm.
The India Meteorological Department has indicated that the well-marked low-pressure area over the east-central and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal is likely to strengthen into a depression on October 24, a deep depression the following day, and a cyclonic storm, potentially named Arnab, over the west-central Bay by the morning of October 26. It is then forecast to move west-northwestwards, continuing to intensify, and reach near Andhra Pradesh coast around the morning of October 28.
Sahu cautioned that favourable atmospheric and oceanic conditions are driving the system’s rapid organisation, with the potential for it to progress into a severe or very severe cyclonic storm with wind of more than 120 kmph. He noted that a clearer picture of its exact intensity, wind speeds, and trajectory should emerge around October 26.
October cyclones, Sahu observed, typically carry greater destructive potential than pre-monsoon systems in May. Key concerns include high wind speeds that could pick up significantly as the system approaches, widespread heavy rainfall raising the risk of localised flooding, and storm surges with rough sea conditions along the coastline.
Comparing ECMWF and GFS Forecasts
Weather models, however, show some variation in the precise landfall location. The European ECMWF model projects the system near the Andhra Pradesh coastline southwest of Visakhapatnam around October 28, suggesting a possible crossing in the broader Kakinada–Machilipatnam sector. The American GFS model indicates a position southwest of Visakhapatnam with potential effects extending inland toward the Godavari region and Vijayawada. While coastal stretch between Visakhapatnam and the Krishna–Godavari region remains under particular scrutiny, southern Odisha could experience significant impacts from heavy rain and gusty winds.
The system is most likely heading toward the Andhra Pradesh coast, according to IMD Bhubaneswar Director Manorama Mohanty, who added that specific details on its path and intensity will emerge in the days ahead.
Impact on Odisha and preparedness
The IMD has forecast isolated extremely heavy rainfall over coastal Andhra Pradesh on October 27 and 28, and over Odisha and Telangana on October 28, with heavy to very heavy rainfall likely over Odisha on October 27 and 29. Wind speeds are expected to reach 70-80 kmph, gusting to 90 kmph, from October 26 onward. Fishermen have been advised against venturing into the sea in the affected areas of the Bay of Bengal.
In response, the Odisha government has activated its full disaster-response apparatus. Leaves for employees in key departments have been cancelled, and agencies placed on high alert. Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi stated that departments have been assigned specific responsibilities with the primary objective of zero casualties. Schools, colleges, and anganwadi centres will remain closed on October 28 and 29 in Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput, and Malkangiri districts. Around 60 ODRAF teams, 17 NDRF teams, and 225 fire service units are on standby, with cyclone and flood shelters prepared and arrangements to shift vulnerable people, including patients and pregnant women, to safer locations. Health authorities have been directed to stock medicines and anti-snake venom, while engineering departments stand ready for rapid restoration of infrastructure.
Meanwhile, President Droupadi Murmu has postponed her scheduled visit to Odisha on October 28 and 29 amid the threat.
