Bhubaneswar: Odisha, which has a long history of devastating cyclones, has never seen a storm of the intensity as the brewing Fani in April-May.
From 1891 to 2018, Odisha witnessed at least 98 cyclones, severe cyclones and super cyclones, the highest in all the east-coast states.
According to the Odisha government’s ‘Vulnerability to Cyclone’ report, the state extends to 17 per cent of India’s eastern coast, but has been affected by nearly 35 per cent of all cyclone and severe cyclones that have crossed the east coast.
Fani is the first severe cyclonic storm to have formed in April in India’s oceanic neighbourhood since 1976, records available with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
Speaking to Odisha Bytes, former director of IMD, Bhubaneswar, Sarat Sahu said Odisha witnessed cyclonic storms during summer in 1893, 1914, 1917, 1982 and 1989, but these brought little trouble for the state by either fizzling out or changing course towards West Bengal.
“Severe cyclones with wind speed of 89-117 kmph can form anytime. It depends on the rise in temperature of the sea. They tend to be concentrated in November or around May, when the monsoon prepares to arrive in Kerala in June. However, nothing of this intensity has been witnessed since aeon,” he said.
This April, temperature of the sea rose to unprecedented 30 to 31 degree Celsius, he said, attributing it to strong outflow of sea current. “The cyclone has formed due to warming of the Bay of Bengal basin. With global warming, we have to be prepared for such occurrences,” he added.
According to IMD’s cyclone statistics, the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea have collectively registered 46 ‘severe cyclonic storms’ from 1965 to 2017. A total of 28 of them were between October and December. Seven of them have been in May and only two — in 1966 and 1976 — were recorded in April.
Cyclone Fani has intensified into an ‘extremely severe cyclonic storm’. “It is very likely to move northwestwards till May 1 evening and thereafter re-curve north-northeastwards and reach Odisha Coast by May 3 afternoon with maximum sustained wind of speed 170-180 gusting to 200 kmph,” the IMD latest bulletin informed.
The protracted gestation of Fani is also a matter concern. The storm had been building up since April 25 and is expected to make landfall, according to current models, only by May 3. On an average, tropical cyclones form and make landfall in less than a week.
According to Satheesh Shenoi, Director of Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services), a research unit responsible for tracking the oceans, the longer Fani hovered over the ocean, the more moisture and energy it gained from the ocean and the stronger its impact along the coast. “For now, models suggest that waves as high as 6.3 m are
possible in the ocean under the influence of the storm,” he told The Hindu.
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