Whether the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) admits it or not, its defeat in the recent Assembly elections is clearly bad news for it and does not bode well for it in the 2019 general elections.
Although BJP leaders are projecting that the outcome in the three Hindi heartland states was not a referendum on the Modi government, it is clearly a case of sour grapes. The leaders want to completely distance themselves (and Narendra Modi) from the glaring defeat in three states. They seem to be ignoring the fact that the PM was the star campaigner for the coveted elections. Interestingly, had they won, the entire credit would have been showered on Modi.
Agrarian crisis and Rafael deal issues raised by Congress resonated among the electorate. Rahul Gandhi has said on record that Rafael issue will be on the agenda for the 2019 elections.
It is primarily to put the government on the mat that the Congress and other Opposition parties are bent upon a Joint Parliamentary Committee (JPC) on Rafael. The government is in no mood to relent even though the winter session is likely to be a washout if there is no end to the logjam.
Despite all its bravado, BJP is in a bind. Even if we accept that the deal was above board, once JPC is held, the Opposition can nitpick on any loophole on several grounds such as the confidentiality clause, price negotiations or choosing of the offset partner. The BJP does not want to give any such opportunity to the Opposition particularly Congress. It’s a Catch 22 situation for BJP.
This is surely not how BJP had envisaged 2018. Five states go for Assembly elections and BJP comes out a complete cropper. However much the party may explain the defeat in terms of statistics of vote percentage or anti incumbency, in elections it is always “Jo Jeeta Wohi Sikandar”.
The Congress, the largest opposition party, too must be wary and not read too much in the victory, because whatever said and done, the vote during this election was more of a negative vote against the BJP rather than a positive one for Congress. In Telangana, Congress could not do much to dislodge the ruling Telangana Rashtra Samithi (TRS) and its own tie- up with Telugu Desam Party (TDP) was rejected by voters. In Mizoram , Congress was completely trounced by the Mizo National Front (MNF) getting just five seats.
The situation in the run up to the 2019 general election is completely different from what it was in 2014 when BJP was on a winning spree. Today, regional leaders and parties are holding onto their bastions whether it is Odisha, West Bengal, Telangana, Jammu & Kashmir, Tamil Nadu or Delhi and the national parties are left with no recourse but to tie-up with them.
Congress is already talking in terms of a Mahagathbandhan or tie-up among all anti-BJP parties to dislodge it from the Centre. However, the ticklish issue is the question of leadership. Some parties want the decision before they contest to be together, while others feel the decision should be taken after the general elections. Some are in favour of Rahul Gandhi as the leader, others are not.
BJP has dismissed the idea as a rag tag group of parties coming together without any ideological similarity just for fulfilling personal political ambitions of individuals. Such experiments have failed in the country earlier, they point out. However, the BJP must remember that its earlier avatar, Bharatiya Jan Sangh was very much a part of such an amalgamation in 1977.
While disenchantment has set in with the BJP, there is no firm alternative in view at the national level either.
Whether Opposition parties will be able to forge together a united front forgetting all their petty ambitions and differences to successfully take on the BJP at the national level is a million dollar question.
(The Writer Is A Senior Journalist Based In New Delhi)
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of Odisha Bytes.
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